HasanAbi
SF🦎US ECONOMY TANKING?🧑🎨NATALIE HARP UPDATES🖌️TRUMP SIGNALS ECON NUKE OVER IRAN🖌️STRAIT CLOSED 🦎
08-21-2026 · 5h 15m
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All right, all right, all right. Let's move on from this.
Because you might be wondering what the distraction could be about and this is definitely something
that is an ongoing incident and ongoing bag and forth. Here it is, ladies and gentlemen,
the big booty cheeks bill. Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill. Big booty
cheeks bill, booty cheeks bill, booty cheeks bill, booty cheeks bill, booty cheeks bill,
Let's get into some of the meat and potatoes of this big booty bill.
I call it chik booty bale because his booty is booty cheeks
um, fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck
You say please, please
It's too much winning
We can't take it anymore
More, more, more, more
It's Big Booty Bill.
Don't worry, I'm going to talk about the Big Booty Cheese Bill.
What's going on everybody?
I hope everyone's having a fantastic evening, afternoon, pre-noon, no matter where you are
in the world.
I'm a son piker in this house and I'm broadcast coming to you live from somewhat gloomy San
Francisco, California folks were alive, we're alive.
And I hope everyone's having a fantastic one because today's a beautiful day.
Today's a wonderful day.
I am not on a yacht.
Yes.
The camera is as we are going to solve it.
It's just as currently because I am coming to you live from
We've I'm not in the home station. Okay. I'm not a home base. I'm not a home base and
This fucking tour has ruined my life
And we're on tour. We're on fear and tour and it is the case always with
with you know anything that we do with the
With the whole team, with the whole crew, there's just like a million moving parts and therefore a million
ways to
to break the setup.
So yeah, this is the part of the broadcast where I tell you about my personal news. Obviously it's 821.
Very special day on the broadcast in 2019.
you
you
you
you
you
you
or if his campaign is led by like, you know, old school, main, Democratic Party consultants,
they are going to lure me into Maine just to shoot and kill me.
They would probably bring me into Maine just to assassinate me and put me out back
and be like, yeah, come, let's do this.
Let's do this Troy Jackson rally and then they would take me out back and put a bullet
the back of my head and end the DNC battle, the DNC struggle once and for all. They would probably
ice pick me Trotsky style, like I'm exiled in Mexico, because like, let's be real,
Maine might love me, the voters might, you know, enjoy my presence. But if his team is run by,
as I suspect, an OG like Biden campaign person, they would rather assassinate me. They would rather
ICE pick me in the dome than to ever allow me or to ever, you know, ask for my services.
I feel like you've given this bit a little bit too much thought. Yes, I think, and I mean this
I think that the Democratic Party consultants and members of the DNC, not lower-ranking
members, people that are in this community that are obviously a part of the staffer class,
a part of the campaigns, but like old Democrat consultants would literally want me assassinated,
100 hanged before before even the Republicans do.
So yeah.
Is SF a city or an HOA?
We're in America.
Everyone is a everyone is a home.
I'm not in any with Mr. Who is this Kiki Palmer talked about.
And would you want him to campaign with you?
I don't really know who Mr. Piker is. I've heard about him.
I hate to say it. I hope I don't sound ridiculous.
I don't know who this man is.
I mean, he could be walking down the street. I wouldn't-
No, dude. It's a meme, Chatters.
It's a- this is a classic Kiki Palmer meme.
From a vanity fa- God, you guys are- you guys got duped.
He hates black women? Question mark, question mark.
I'm not even sure why it's a question.
Yeah, no, definitely.
Your outfit is the perfect for the latest Wall Street Journal.
Americans, Socialists or China Maxing Now, the online left
gox of the Chinese industry at scops of progress at home.
I'm literally wearing the same suit that I'm wearing in this photo. So yes
Playlist related thank you to Macias
Anyway, we got we got nothing else going on
In my life. There's nothing in my personal news. I ended the broadcast. I ended the broadcast
At a reasonable hour yesterday. I went in what I watched American doctor. I wasn't a shut-ass loser
I
Went and I watched
American doctor and it was exceptional it was
Emotional it made me so angry at times. I am I
Could I can't believe that I just like in my career I get to meet such impressive
such heroic individuals like for rose tire mark as well I met him last night mark
pro-mutter so it was it's maddening for sure especially there's like a final
credit sequence there's a final credit sequence in the end where it's like a
But it's masterfully done, where it definitely, right here, what are you, HDMI is here and
the chargers here, our camera is here, chat, right, this has to be the charger, I suspect.
Hopefully it'll work.
I see David has swapped some things around.
But yeah, I don't know what this requires a it's a it's a rail.
Does it have the rail underneath it?
Okay.
I don't think that that is okay anyway.
Are you in heaven?
Why are you shooting me from clouds of paradise?
Yeah, I'm in heaven.
So, you getting surgery done?
Yeah, I'm going to become the ultimate mogular.
I'm mog maxing.
But yeah, so I, Kate, you know, I had interviewed Dr. Thayat Ahmed and Ahmed and also for O'Seedwa
a couple of days ago.
Yeah.
All right.
hopefully coming to a theater near you.
Oh, and it's on, sorry.
But you have the backing of all of the doctors
and nurses that went to Gaza.
Anyway, we can support you.
Your voice is so important.
Please keep doing what you're doing.
No, it's vice versa.
I should support you guys.
I'm good.
I'm doing all right, you know?
But thank you.
We're doing a lot of work for each other.
Thank you so much for coming on.
It's really good to be back.
And I'll probably see you guys at the,
you're gonna be at the screening, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So yeah, we went to the screening last night.
watched it. There was like a little Q&A and an interview afterwards and it was, it's an incredible movie.
I said the last like ending sequence, the clip compilation in the ending sequence was so maddening.
I basically, I said, watch American Doctor, even the end sequence alone and tell me you don't
want to dismantle the apartheid state and punish the perpetrators, the genocide. It's good,
It's powerful. It's got white people in it as well, you know
It shows you three varying perspectives that all obviously unite under the banner of
Of anti genocide, so I think that's also
Very valuable
And I think it's like it's one of those one of those movies that like you can show white people and they'll watch it
It'll be like this is this is terrifying like this is I had no idea what it was like
This is unbelievable. I can't believe this kind of violence is going on this bloodshed that we've contributed to
In any case
The doctors get asked if they condemn a Samp Iger yeah, I don't think doctors who have
you know experienced the
Genocidal ambitions of the Israeli occupying forces are ever going to turn around and
and condemn someone like myself.
So no, good joke though, I get it.
In any case,
so where was I?
The three blue sky house and I,
my heads are going crazy.
Wait, really?
That's just you.
Where was I?
You are so bright.
I know.
I know.
I know.
The fucking camera is going to be, the camera is going to switch in a second, okay?
Shut the fuck up. How about that? How about shut the fuck up shut your stupid fucking face up?
Shut your stupid fucking mouth up and just enjoy the show before I fucking turn it off. Okay. How about that?
Jesus Christ dude any any little tweak any little goddamn tweak and everybody fucking loses their blows a gasket
Okay, I'm in heaven. I died. I killed myself. Okay, because I'm gonna stand
The micromanager in the motherfucking chat
Anyway
Today's the first day of the tour it's great great so far fucking great
Anyway, yeah, I went I watched the American doctor
it was it was
remarkable it was very good and and it's very emotional and
I highly recommend you guys go check it out. I highly recommend you guys go watch it
and then
After
After that I went to sleep. I woke up early 5 a.m. Got on a flight
Blue out here to San Francisco. I had enough sleep. It's not that it's just like but when we when we move shit around
round. And we have like a whole crew for the tour. And we have all this is it connected?
All right, let me try to. It's not connected to the computer, though. You didn't connect
into the, it's not, well, it's not working.
Gonna be okay, all right, we'll figure it out.
Um, the Magewell is not reading it at all.
I don't know.
No it's not.
Hold on.
Well, it might, it might now.
Hold on.
Let's see.
Nope.
Nope, I keep activating and deactivating it, it's not.
The lighting is not that bad, all things considered, no, it's ass, you don't have to say that.
You don't have to lie.
We're going to fix it right now, eventually.
You're streaming through approximate BRB screen and restart OBS?
No. That is not an issue.
So it's all connected?
Where's the Magewell?
Close to G. Directly connected.
And the camera's on and everything?
Why is not fucking working? Here. I'll just disconnect it one more time.
I'm gonna see you tonight. Hell yeah chatter.
No, it's just it's there. I just deactivated reactivated. It's just not showing up. It's
just when I turn it on it doesn't turn on. There's no way because he Yeah, it's supposed
to be on movie mode. Okay, you have to call David. You have to call David and ask him
what the fuck he did with this. Otherwise, I'm just gonna, yeah, just route it directly
to the four, to the, yeah, fuck this magewell bullshit.
That's the one on the left.
Let's see if this is even.
Of course, it's not working.
Of course, it's not fucking working.
The
Magewell does not, I mean, the Magewell is there, but it's just not showing up when we connect the camera.
And then do what?
Alright, reconnect it.
What? What is he saying?
It's there. It's been there. I can always find it. It's just it doesn't it doesn't activate.
It doesn't show anything.
Yeah, it's integrated camera USB capture for HDMI 4k plus
It's just not reading it
Okay.
Oh, so we just have to read it as a source every single time. That's crazy.
Okay, this is not framed properly.
I guess it's fine.
No, it's fine. I can do it on my own. All right, thank you.
Oops.
Oops.
Wait, what?
What's happening?
Where'd it go?
What?
Oh, okay.
Um, okay, we're fine.
We'll just use it like this.
Uh, we'll just use it like this.
Fuck it.
Who cares?
Fuck it, we do it live every time, you know?
We do it live every time chat.
Every goddamn time.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
All right.
We're good.
You need that on the soundboard?
Yeah, sure.
Need I need a lot of things. Yeah, let me bring a fucking soundboard here when I go on
What let me let me let me bring a soundboard with me everywhere I go
So there's another thing that I can freak out over is that's another
That's another point of failure
Okay
You may get a little bit brighter. I'm gonna ban you for the day
Why are you being sarcastic this a great idea
Okay, for as parasocial as you guys are I don't think a single one of you understands the the
Did the technical know how required to make this fucking thing work?
okay and also on top of that the the camera frame rate is off and that's why
when I move around it's ash cheeks so I have to fix that myself as well because
Hannah doesn't know how to do any of that stuff I do but doing it live is
is very frustrating anyway
It's the shutter speed. Yeah, you're right. You're right about it being shuttered.
Basically, what happened is, for those of you who are wondering why it's so ash cheeks
up in here. I'm fucking out of focus now Jesus Christ dude nothing is working why is it like this
God is punishing me every fucking day God is punishing me every goddamn day I
I have been it I am a sinner I deserve nothing I deserve to I deserve everything I get okay I am
I'm just a fucking horrible person who deserves it.
I'm a piece of shit.
All right.
Oh my God.
I don't know if this is like autism.
I don't know what it is.
I just like...
I
Toward day one going well. No, you don't understand like I I I want to I want to die
It's it's like every every minor tweak
every minor tweak that just like
Every every little thing that is just like a
a every little thing that goes wrong is a disaster is it's an absolute unbearable
disaster that makes me go fucking insane it makes me go goddamn insane why did
you agree to the tour of y'all we're gonna complain I lost a bet dude it's
not a secret I lost a fucking bet it was very public I very publicly got
got duped by Austin as you guys know. What what do you mean?
Anyway, all right let's continue. I lost the you know name the gay game that we
did the gaydar game that we did and that's it that's why we're doing the
tour. Everything still looks better than most room set up
flaw. Okay, whatever. All right. All right. You in my city,
you need to check in with me or else Daniel Luri's bodyguards
will find you. Yeah, maybe they'll find me in fucking and my
life okay um day 24 of reminding him
Hassan Abbey he still owes his gaming
from franchise the stream friends Lop
doesn't count okay take a day off one
day for you 24 hours I have done
numerous gaming streams since then
So, um, anyway, where, where do we begin?
I didn't even, I didn't even blast off yet.
Yeah.
Personal news wise, that's it.
I'm here.
Everything that could have gone wrong in the process, as is the case, usually has gone wrong.
But I'm in San Francisco nonetheless.
I think the most beautiful city in California, or like the coolest city in California, which is unfortunately inhabited by, I mean, it's populated by some of the worst
uh neo fascist tech feudal warlords every god damn every god damn aspect of the city is caked with
uh ai ads it just feels like you you enter a totally different environment you know how like
everybody has tremendous amounts of anger towards data centers and flock this is the city where
it's like no flock is awesome data centers are the best i love data i'm data center david
Yeah. But yeah, that's where we're at. Now it is, it was the exact opposite right up until
the 2000s. Yeah, the tech boom has won, given this city tremendous, given this state tremendous
amounts of revenue, but at the same time has like absolutely destroyed the beauty and seeks
to eradicate what remains of the beauty of this of this state and the city as well.
It's of interesting predicament because it's cool. It's cool. San Francisco is
really cool. It's like a real city. If you visit you're like wow there's so much
culture here. There's so much community here. There's a robust public
here, which is fantastic, but then you're like, oh, it's inhabitants. It's current new inhabitants
have slowly pushed out, slowly pushed out the previous inhabitants and have turned this
into a feudal tech dystopia.
Anyway, fear and tour begins. I'm in San Francisco.
Throughout the tech, bros, shout out the Loris Park Real Third Places. Yeah, sure.
And a lot of our iconic cultural spot spots have been forced out of business because the landlord sold to the land developers and build condos
Yeah, and now you have Daniel Lurie and
People love him and he is a billionaire and a puppet of the tech feudal overlords and yet
Seemingly the libbed up new
San Francisco loves the shit out of him
That to me shows like where the, where the current attitude, like what the, what the current San Francisco population has become attitude wise.
Does it feel good to be close to Nancy Pelosi? Yeah, this is Nancy Pelosi town. It makes total sense why Nancy Pelosi runs the show around these parts.
They never give us cool futuristic stuff is all dystopian trash. Yes, it is everything and I mean everything
Here is designed for the almighty dollar
Everything is designed around maximizing profits
maximizing super profits or
parasitic capital
It's not, you know, it may be, it may give you a modest improvement in your life, in the interim.
But that's it.
I said beings, oh God, what am I doing?
When you're always on, and when you're always on camera, you have to be on all the time,
and it's so fucking annoying that sometimes I'm just not on.
You know?
Sometimes I'm simply not on it, and it kind of sucks when you're not on it, because you're
not on it in front of tens of thousands of individuals, any of which are praying for
your downfall.
I would love to pay attention, but you're wearing that suit reminding me of how Mao killed millions
of people.
Yeah.
Crazy close-up of Trump's hand, I saw.
I saw.
It's a trigger warning.
This is a necrotic flesh withering away.
Pull up the DSASF headquarters and squash the beef please.
I don't have any beef with DSAS San Francisco.
They are forced to live in San Francisco in its current iteration.
They have experienced a modest amount of success and then watch it get ripped away from their
hands.
I understand how traumatic that is.
It's like the SA San Francisco is what it feels like in a localized version of what it
feels like to get Bernie Sanders elected as president and then have the fascist takeover
like right after.
They remove them from office and then the fascist plot works like FDR style.
And then everyone around them is like, this is actually awesome and we love that the fascists
have taken over.
So no matter what kind of beef they might have with me, I don't think they do.
I don't think many of the rank and filers do.
I will say this I
Can't get mad at them
Your lip slob video is doing well. Oh, yeah, of course Natalie Harve family is concerned for her 151,000 views in 15 hours
Goddamn we are pumping them out. She's switching sides to stop universal health care
Jesus Christ one two three four five six videos
We've uploaded in one day. No seven eight
Eight videos in one day. What the fuck we are going crazy mode
Lipslop is great. It brings the new lips in. I agree. We're going to keep doing lipslop.
don't you worry um lip slop is always lip slop is always good
um where was I what was I talking about
More 2004 era dem slob please. I've never heard anybody say we want more libslop. That's actually crazy
BDBD reacts to your reaction to the Chinese movie
Talk political commentator on BDBD. You want to collab during your China trip
Do you now understand what I mean by the neutral path is the blood of your path that we take a sounds view seriously
We need to find a way to shut up this person who thinks being pro-china gives him the right to criticize and offer advice to China
If we can't do that, it'll be hard to stick to our current path, which is more rational and compassionate
To make the Iraqi speak up. We need to make the American white left and white right shut up
This is already filmed with restraint to ensure it could be released. There's hardly any direct depiction. Yeah, the netizens are mad at me
If we actually make you Chinese food you'll say it's too salty both sides want China to understand them
But who's gonna understand us it's too hard for us. Okay every day
We're being watched smeared stabbed in the back and then when something happens you come to hold court say something
I've reached the age where I can understand both the director and a son
The only flaw in this movie is that it feels a little bit like attack on Titan it describes everything about our war
But avoids offering about war but avoids offering answers if you just want to go to the cinema and spend money on the experience is great
To be fair Chinese anti-Japanese war films that are occasionally individual Japanese soldiers
Portrait in a relatively positive light, which is a very normal narrative technique
Anyway, as China's national power rises, the whole world will inevitably look up to draw
closer to and want to analyze and learn from China's path to becoming a stronger nation.
It's funny that this guy is like, we need to shut this guy up.
He just because he's pro-China doesn't mean that he is allowed to criticize China.
It's like, no, it, you know, I'm allowed to have my opinions that's so funny.
Asan's own country is one of the parties involved.
He definitely has a stance.
And then the trend on foreign websites recently
has been hoping we target Benjamin and Yao.
The old videos of Wang Yi and Benjamin and Yao
keep resurfacing and going viral.
Asan is this bloodthirsty.
I don't think the movie intends to conduct a moral trial
or take a political stance.
It simply expresses a common person's desire for peace.
I'm bloodthirsty.
I'm bloodthirsty for saying that in a story
that you can in a story about American TikTok comments be like TSAF, Rose Will,
Demoji, and Chinese beauty-beauty comments are like,
to be fair, the critique is the same as with regards to the affirmation matter.
Yeah, Chinese netizens are still goaded at posting.
They're so verbose.
To seek truth from facts, old China is now achieving the greatest development
through trade. So I hope everyone will enjoy the benefits of China's economic growth by
minimizing the cost of maximizing the gains of trade cannot achieve significant development
due to external interference. The traditional grand narrative of a small folk perspective
is indeed hard for foreigners to understand. The background for me is that a lot of these
post-Wolf Warrior blockbuster Chinese movies kind of suck. There are still great Chinese
films that are being buried under these kinds of overproduced stuff. Well, we'll
see I'm gonna I'm going to watch it and then I'll give you my honest take
your opinion about the movie was pretty libbed up to be honest wait what libbed
up American style or libbed up Chinese style because the Chinese liberals think
the movie actually criticized America too much remember liberalism in China is
right wing Chinese liberals watch that movie and thought it criticized
America too much. I'm saying it didn't criticize America enough. If anything, I'm closer to
the Chinese left position, not the Chinese right position.
I mean, I guess liberalism in America's right wing too technically, but I guess adjusted
to our current conditions, adjusted to where the masses are politically and how they
self-identify. Liberals are unfortunately seen as communism in this country.
Maybe they're just mad because you're criticizing China at all. Yes, of course. Of course, that's a
big part of it for sure. You have to remember Chinese netizens learned Marx and Hegel in
second grade. Yes, it makes you fucking bullshit game. How are these players allowed to keep
their account fucking useless this game is so stupid is jungle versus jungle just
fix your fucking game Jesus Christ how does Chinese right compare to us moderate
okay one thing that you guys have to understand okay one thing that you guys
have to understand is this no matter which government formation or which
ideology you exist under you're inevitably going to you know grow
somewhat resentful or be very critical of it in either direction. Okay, it's normal.
We are not unique here in the United States of America with our attitude
towards our government. Like if you grew up in a communist country under single
party communist rule, all of the economic struggles that you experience,
you are going to inevitably blame communism for. For example, the reason
I'm bringing it up is because it's like Cuba. There are plenty of young Cubans that have
only known poverty, isolation for the rest of the world, and they, you know, lay the
blame squarely on the hands of the government and the Communist Party and also the economic
system. There's always a wanting for something else, a wanting for something more, unless
You are the hegemonic superpower and you are able to give
bountiful treats to your citizens unconditionally
because you are exploiting the rest of the world
in order to keep up a quality of life
for even some of the poorer citizens in your country.
And of course, I'm referencing America, right?
My Cuban dad is like that.
I'm also Cuban native and as soon as I stepped into the U.S.
I got tremendously radicalized.
Yeah.
Cause, yeah, it's all, it's, it's not dissimilar to why
DSA is rising in prominence here in the United States
of America right now.
It's not shocking to me that it's ironic because the
Wall Street Journal article and like many other,
at least like somewhat clever thinkers have identified why there's so much
china maxing going on america because they look at china's trajectory is a
positive one and they look at the american trajectory
and their own current conditions and they recognize how negative it is
you understand
and that's the that's
the reality no matter what happens no matter what happens no matter where
you are in the world
If your economic conditions are getting worse,
if your material circumstances are worsening,
then you are eventually going to seek out alternatives.
So for example, in places like China, the right wing,
the Chinese liberals, not in the rural countryside,
usually the liberals that live in big cities that might have a problem with job attainment
because there's a lot of educated youth in China and there's a significant amount of
youth unemployment in China and they live in these big cities and they get frustrated
and they're like, oh, we should liberalize further or they might be frustrated in many
instances with like some of the more repressive elements of the state, you
know, social issues, things of that nature. Yes, China also is running into elite
overproduction problems right now. Do I have faith in the Chinese
government to overcome this problem? Absolutely. But lazy-ass kids, come on man,
and you think that's the problem
that's so funny this is this is such a funny attitude to have to be like to be like a chud but for to be like a right wing chud but for China
toast, but Chinese, they're all out there spending their money on avocado toast.
Let me say I know, come on you don't think this is a real take, I don't know.
Some people do that, but the point I'm trying to make is, is the best possible way to overcome
these sorts of issues, the best possible way to overcome these sorts of issues is
good policy, okay?
That's how you do it.
You design a system that will identify these problems and seek to solve them.
I have faith that the Chinese government is very responsive to issues like this because
they are very sensitive to anything that breeds rebellion.
So I suspect that they are working on, I don't know how, but that is a real problem.
In any case, we will be talking a little bit about China in a little bit.
But I wanted to show you that the brain rot, the Fox News Boomer brain rot has reached
the tick-tock debates.
Here's Dean Withers having to deal with someone whose brain has been rotted by what
they see on Fox News.
I think that democratic socialists or Muslims in a Trojan horse plain nicer than hijacked
the nation.
Well, to me, I haven't seen any democratic socialists.
I've been told so long on Donnie, which is ruining my city that I love.
Explain how I wish I could understand what like, what a person like this means when
they say this.
I'm
Yeah, this people like Abdul E. Said who's running with some
Abdul E. Said
Abdul E. Said
Who's running with somebody who said America deserve not 11 like as though I'm his like vice senator or something as though
There's a new position unlocked
It's called vice senator when someone's running for senator. You have a a
A compatriot
America deserved 9-11. I mean, do we agree with that? Do we hear that?
We're talking about Hassan Piker. He's not really a Piker, that's false.
Huh? He's campaigning with next to him. And I mean, it worked. I mean, look at...
Yeah, it's so funny that these guys are... Like, at a certain point, I've come to
the recognition that most Americans are totally checked out of politics. They don't pay close
attention to it at all. Everyone at the end of the day is a low information voter, every
single person. And those who we assume are like higher information voters aren't actually
demonstrating coherent thought, but instead are regurgitating what they saw on television.
For the Republicans, it's of course what they see on Fox News, what they see on Twitter,
what they see on their timeline.
And for the Democrats, it's not that different either.
Obviously, Democrats, by and large, liberals, by and large, have a much more diverse media
diet.
But even then, they are still totally, totally malleable to media narratives, especially
if it's overbearing, especially if you hear it all the time.
Um, yeah, and yes, this is more proof of the process.
How many times have we seen this? How many times have we seen someone on TikTok?
Um, say, oh, well, Fox News told me a Sompiger is running.
I have to be angry about this because Fox News told me this is something that is worthy of anger and frustration.
It's incredible. It is an incredible set of circumstances that, you know, no matter what
happens, this is like the most educated Republican voter, okay? The most educated Republican voter
is just regurgitating what he saw in New York Post headlines like, oh, well, Zoram and
Abbey he's destroyed my city that I love and also Hassan Abbey is running alongside Abdul Isayee
Asayee and they're doing 9-eleven they're running on a pro 9-eleven platform
It's like dude. What the fuck are you you are not living in the same plane of existence as us?
You you're just out of your fucking mind. I think now he won the primary
This this this three stages on how the Muslim gains of power right price Crawford said it runs stage one right now
Do you want me to repeat that to you?
Like this guy thinks he has a fully fleshed out thought process on this.
Like he is going to describe Abdul Asaib Bol's process of doing Islamic taqedos.
He has been successfully fear mongered.
Last election cycle, it was transgender panic.
This election cycle, it is Islamophobia.
Muslims are the new transgender.
Now, of course, the transpanic hasn't gone away.
Make no mistake, these guys can walk and chew gum at the same time.
I would never make that argument, but it's pretty obvious that like the most salient
enemy of American narrative is now moving against, you know, Islamic-style Sharia enjoyers
that are doing ninja taquitos, also known as taquia.
And we are also simultaneously, you know, trans-gender-fying, transmogrifying your youth
as well.
It's Islamic-style woke Sharia, because at the same time they're like, these guys are
unbelievably conservative, it's not American at all, but they also are pro-trans, which
is also not American, and that's far too woke.
And none of it makes sense.
None of it makes sense.
Like, are we too woke?
And we want to transmogrify the children?
Or are we too conservative?
But it's also bad.
It's like brown conservatism, not white conservatism, which is good.
The reason why I'm bringing this up, this inconsistency, this idiocy, is because I
brought it up earlier as well.
I brought it up last night because I was getting attacked by Katie Britt.
Katie Britt is a GOP politician who said this.
Hold on. Here's Katie Britt on Fox News last night saying this.
That's what these candidates are talking about. They're jihadist sympathizers.
We're seeing that there with El Sayed. You're seeing Hassan Piker become the voice
and the spokesperson there for the Democratic Party.
we have to highlight it because America needs to know what we're up against and I think this
is going to make sure that in November people turn away from that.
So yeah, stepward wife Katie Britt says, they are jihadist sympathizers, referencing myself
and Abdu'l-as-a-ebole, okay, and then Vance said this too, I'm going to get to that
as well, don't worry, to which I responded with, we are for pluralistic secular democracy,
You are not.
You're conservative.
You're a reactionary.
You do not like that we live in a diverse pluralistic secular democracy.
You want to change that.
We want to defend it.
We want to preserve it.
And yet you call us, you know, Islamic jihadists, right?
And it's ironic because, um, it's ironic because there are the Islamophobia is directly
attacking pluralistic secular democracy. So I said, yet you call us jihadist sympathizers
because we oppose genocide being funded with our tax dollars and our weapons.
And what's crazy about this process is like, these guys are y'all Cata, okay? They are literally
y'all Cata, which is a far greater threat to America, American democracy, what the United
States of America is. Who is this? Did you see ADL for Catholics is up your ass? Oh, Bill
Donahue. I love that guy. Yeah, he's awesome. Yeah, it's funny because I love Catholics.
It's my favorite. It's my favorite type of Christianity. Like no, no joke. I'm being
sincere about this. I think Catholics are awesome. But this guy hates me. Bill
Donahue, president of the Catholic League, fucking hates my ass. And he hates Zoran as
well. He's the one who's like, Zoran Mabdabi shouldn't actually participate in 9-11 because
he already participated in it in 2001. The League under Donahue's leadership is criticized
for its conservatism and for its combat of response to high-profile media stories besides
education campaigns, group issues, condemnations, initiates boycotts and protests, defense
priests against accusations of child sexual abuse. Yeah. I'm with the Pope. I'm with the
woke Pope. Okay. And then the case where was I so yeah, what I was trying to say is these
guys are trying to do what they perceive Sharia is right they're trying to do
Christian Sharia or at least like what they unironically claim is Sharia right
when they talk about Sharia law what are they talking about they're like oh
well it can range it ranges from like lowering the age of consent to I don't
know did treating women as property like I'm not saying this is what Islam is
about either. I'm just saying like their association with with Islam is like
unbelievably conservative, right? It's like fundamentalists, it's conservative,
and it's very funny because like American Muslims have always been pulled on
this stuff and and Muslims in the United States of America are more woke
than the people advocating for Christian Sharia. While simultaneously
decrying Sharia laws coming to the United States of America they actually
trying to literally do Yalkata style policies. So that's what's so interesting about this process,
but that's just how racism works, right? There's nothing you can do about it. It's just like,
we're white. When white folks are advocating for conservatism, it's good. And when a brown person
exists, that's bad because they're, you know, doing conservatism, but brown style.
So, beyond the lookout for this kind of initiative, a lot more frequently, because obviously this
is going to be base boosted by a lot of conservatives because it's very successful in targeting some
less educated people and like leaning into their fears, especially because, you know,
you have an upwardly mobile minority population that many people are not
privy to many people have not actually been around and it's it's very easy to
fear monger against this upwardly mobile somewhat isolated minority
population especially when the last 30 years of propaganda has made the the
Muslim population out to be the number one enemy of the Western world and the
United States of America in an effort to justify the global war on terror.
So that's what the conservatives are leaning into, and of course if the liberals do not
across the board, the anti-Trump forces do not across the board oppose this kind of
racism, it's going to get completely out of hand.
And I would go so far as to say it is already completely out of hand.
Have you heard about that?
Alright, stage one, the Muslims are minority, little political power.
They are preaching, they're persuasing people that they're good, you know, they're dealing
with the LGBTQ and the Jewish people, which they hate.
Stage two is that they grow political power, we're slowly getting there, you know, as
these more democratic socialists come in and they're letting these people in, they're
gaining, they're gaining more and more influence.
And then stage three is the Muslim, you know, when they have majority of the society.
Yes, he I mean are you shocked at the guy who's who thinks that like every muslim on us soil is trying to
Do fifth column style infiltration is a functional illiterate
persuasing
It's funny because it is rebranded protocols of elders I on shit
Yeah
It is what Nazis and what fascists use, what anti-Semites use as the Jewish problem and the Jewish question in the 21st century is now the Muslim problem and the Muslim question. That's what we're doing.
Okay?
That's it.
So, man, where's the suit I'm wearing it I'm wearing a suit right now
Yeah, Muslims control the media Muslims control banking Muslims control the world
Muslims are infiltrating the democratic socialist movement Muslims are trying to Islam a Islamify the United States of America
and
Muslims have a
a policy of being a policy of lying in order to accomplish their agenda
They're gonna start killing Christians on the street. They're gonna start killing gay people on the street
They're gonna start slaving women making women their slaves just like how they do in every other Muslim country
If you go on to a shipping Gaza and you say you're gay, they're shooting you on site
Yeah, check this out. This will be a really good question that will explode expose
use the low IQ droid you are. Convince me that it's reasonable to believe these things about
Zoran Mundani and Abdul Al-Said. What? Convince me that it's reasonable to believe these things
about Zoran Mundani and Abdul Al-Said. Well, I told you one about Abdul Al-Said is that he's
running for somebody who said that and I considered that 11. Dude, it's so like saying that about
Abdul Azoran is funny. Saying that about me I think is even funnier. Like I want to enslave
Women and like destroy the white race and shit like that is like so stupid one because I'm fucking white myself and
to
Like which one is it? Are we too woke or are we too conservative and are you conservative?
like this
This cognitive bias problem
This cognitive dissonance is impossible to overcome for the average chud
Yeah, Democrats is grabbing a Sompiker is right. This is how they
And it's kind of sack is like you know we joke about stuff like this like Islamic Robespierre right but
Islamic Jihad Robespierre, but what's crazy about it is that these guys actually take those jokes seriously
One example I can go back to as recently as like a couple weeks ago is when Elon Musk lost his damn mind
The unearthed tapes of a son piker
From when I was making jokes about the the great replacement and how stupid it is and I was like, yeah
uh, Latiners with their salsa hips were coming, you know, we're gonna we're gonna
consensually steal your girlfriends and your moms and your sisters and then you
know we're gonna eradicate the white race and they were like dude what the
fuck he's admitting it is like no you dumbass I'm making fun of you but what
do you do what do you do when the opposition sincerely believes this
is fear mongering. Is secular Islam a thing outside of race's projection? Never paid you
for a very religious person? No, not. That's why it doesn't make any sense because the very
same people that have called me a homosexual who paints his fingernails, who like dresses
up transgender style are now saying, we are trying to make America, like make every
American woman wear a burqa it just doesn't make any sense but it doesn't
have to because you know sucks for all of us that have to involve ourselves
these people they're just dumb as fuck and I told you the house and I want to
critique a son if you want to get it if you want to crit if you want to
critique a son piker that's probably like like the like the worst thing to
critiquing for okay like listen there's a lot of things as son piker has done and
said that I disagree with but as it relates to that comment for years now
he's been outspoken that what he was saying was that there were particular
like foreign engagements involved in by the United States of America that
descriptively led to said retaliatory attack 9-11 was an attack of terror
9-11 was an atrocity 9-11 was unjustified yeah link back to Islam
our absolute terrorists
But I mean he's even apologized for wording it in the way that he did
If you want to hold of course you didn't now. Yeah, no cuz you got caught right? It's like no I did at the time I
Did at the freaking time dude
Anything against us on I just feel like that's one of like the like more difficult things to hold against them
Because like that's one of the things that he's explained in context and held himself accountable for saying
But obviously I still disagree with the wording
But does this mean that all Christians are pedophiles because Donald Trump was pictured standing next to Jeffrey Epstein?
Yeah, by that logic
Christians of the Holocaust. Yeah, I mean, it's just it's fucking ridiculous. How does he know it's the anniversary?
I think this was a couple weeks ago, but
He says stuff that I disagree. Why is it something every fucking person says because I have been so successfully
Tartan feathered that it's like virtually and I talk so much and I also have a a robust
I have a fairly aggressive
group of
motivated cyber stalkers
Who will be all up in your replies as soon as they see?
anybody defending me that they have to do the throat clearing all the fucking time that's it
That's it
Like there the Republican Party's clip chimping initiative and and manufactured out raid initiative isn't new
It's not new at all. People have been doing this to me online for almost a decade at this point
And that is the reason why anyone who defends me has to do the throat clearing of like well, you know
Hasan piker is the is a grave threat
But you know, this is the worst reason to go after him and that kind of thing like
Immediately they'll be like he's a dog abuser. He fucking murders dogs
Islamic style a dog murderer, of course and also he is a jihadist
He's a Maoist. He wants the American countryside to do the Great Leap Forward.
He wants to do the Pest Campaign here. He wants to kill all the sparrows.
That's what a Sompiker wants.
I have a fairly insane...
I don't think that kid said anything like that.
No, not that kid. That kid just knows the edge.
He knows all the most like he knows only what Fox News has shown him
I'm talking about like
But even Madeline who came on the broadcast yesterday is getting lit the fuck up on the timeline
If you were to go under her replies, right? If you were to go under her replies
You would see the Dan Stalkman sex Pestini brigade in action being like how dare you defend this person?
He is Adolf Hitler. He is literally Adolf Hitler. He is the modern reincarnation of Adolf Hitler.
I was adding context to a bunch of clips on Twitter and I was reported as a bot and my account is invisible when I post replies now.
Sparrows are invasive birds and not native to the U.S. A.C., there's a slender iceberg out there.
Anyway, it is what it is. We just have to deal in this misinformation environment forever. What
has made me so attackable and so easy to attack, which is my accessibility and the fact that
I'm constantly on and constantly live is also what makes me so accessible to show people
what the actual context is.
All I need to do is redirect them to a YouTube video.
There's a million of them out there.
The first time I think people watch a video of mine directly or a podcast appears directly
is when they realize like all of this is just nonsensical slander and that I'm a fairly
reasonable person that is very agreeable.
You know?
That's it.
The exact same reasons as to why I'm endlessly fucking, ContraPoint's been piling on you
on her Patreon and claiming you love Mt. I know.
There's also a lot of like petty vindictive people in this space that have decided that
I am the most significant threat.
the White House with the latest good morning, Rachel. Michael, good morning to you. USS Abraham
Lincoln has spent more than 270 days at sea after a nine month long deployment. They are
finally, making their way back home. They were only supposed to be out on that aircraft carrier
for about six to seven months, but that mission was extended the longer this war with Iran
has continued to drag on. And of course, all of it comes amid new reporting about the worsening
conditions on board that aircraft carrier with the military times reporting they spoke to families
of service members who said at least two people on board tried to jump overboard.
President Trump dismissing those concerns, brushing it off, saying those Marines and
sailors had not been on that ship long enough, but this war with Iran is that a virtual standstill
oil prices are continuing to rise gas right now is about $4 and 10 cents a gallon over
on Wall Street. The Dow plunging about 700 points. President Trump now trying a new
strategy threatening severe consequences for any country that tries to help Iran evade
sanctions and help them. Great strategy sir. I love it.
Great strategy sir.
Thank you. This is, it's going to surely work this time.
So this means the U.S. is Washington has to leave the Pacific right? Yes, the U.S. is
Washington has already left the Pacific. It's on its way to be deployed in the region.
uh... to to relieve uss lincoln
even though donald trump was claiming the other day that the u.s. is lincoln has
not been deployed long enough
well it turns out it has been deployed long enough
u.s. is lincoln is leaving
financially but notably the administration is not saying whether
china iran's top trading partner will face those severe consequences that
president trump is talking about we know the white house and president
Trump, well they are now preparing for Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit here at the White House.
Yeah it's actually really funny that their third way consultant trying to say you're homophobic
is this clip okay we're done we're done we're done we're done we're done it's enough enough enough
enough just you know if you're in the trenches and fighting keep fighting I don't want to fucking
see every like random DC consultant and beltway moron that's like that has like eight followers
being like this is why he's homophobic this is why he's transphobic this is why
he's Islamophobic well I guess none of them say I'm Islamophobic because
they're that's the one phobia that they all entertain and enjoy
like how can I be hyper woke and also hyper conservative at the same time why
is no one ever fucking asked that question you know
how is that possible how am I both weak and strong how is the enemy both
weak and strong. How is the enemy both conservative and also hypersensitive and hyper-woke?
Just a few weeks are back up. Yeah, an important conversation ahead and China's a big trading
partner with the U.S. as well. All right, Rachel, thank you. The Trump administration is overhauling
its strategy in the war with Iran. Again, instead of trying to wipe out Iran's military,
the new goal is to crush their economy. That's something the president is now branding.
Economic D-Day Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says the US is reaching out to you yet new goal, which is I
Looked it up same as the old goal
When was this not the goal?
This has been the goal for the last six months and as a matter of fact, it's been the goal for the last 47 years 48 years
Okay
This has always been the goal and it has reached
tremendous success
At certain points right we were able to successfully destroy the Iranian economy
We were able to successfully
Moment instability volatility in the country
cause mass uprisings
This isn't new at all. This is the exact same goal that we've had with Iran as a matter of fact
It's the only thing that we can do to Iran successfully
but now
When you pair that up with the military campaign
Iran has actually gained tremendous amounts of leverage, okay?
So for Donald Trump to turn back into, to turn the faucet of sanctions up once again on Iran
is very stupid.
He's, he's saying it's going to be an economic D-day, the military D-day failed.
So now he's going to do an economic D-day.
Not sure exactly how, considering that Iran relies, Iran's economy as it exists, is entirely
propped up by Russia, China, countries that are outside of the American secondary sanctions
orbit or countries who are always threatened with American sanctions anyway.
You can't really sanction China.
You can't, at its current phase, sanction Russia any further, or additional sanctions
on Russia will only cripple the energy markets further.
So what are you supposed to do?
Now the foreign minister, Seyed Abbasarakshi, also had something to say about this thread.
He said, 14 years ago, most crippling sanctions in history failed, eight years ago,
maximum pressure failed, five months ago, unconditional surrender failed.
Today, most crushing economic operation ever, bound to fail. We have seen this movie before. Same bull, different bullies.
True. VP Biden on Iran. These are the most crippling sanctions in the history of the sanctions, in the history of sanctions, period.
And it's crazy because like the sanctions only brought about economic volatility to Iran.
It made regular Iranian lives much harder.
It created a lot of struggle, a lot of issues for everyday Iranian citizens.
Sanctions always have been an active collective punishment, and they are infinitely more successful
when those threats are directed towards our allies whose entire economies are designed
around continuous trade and normal relationships with the Western world.
That's why they would work on apartheid South Africa.
That's why they would work on Israel, apartheid Israel.
when directed against our foreign adversaries on the other hand turn into a weapon that obviously
harms regular citizens is to express purposes to create so much instability by engaging
in collective punishment that regular ordinary citizens in the foreign adversary in the society
of our foreign adversary end up rising up in arms and you know they riot, they rebel
and then that rebellion has to be put down violently which is what has happened over
and over again obviously with Iran and that breeds even more instability and more chaos.
All of that, of course, was reversed when Donald Trump directly attacked Iran.
Not only did it harden the position of the hardliners, this direct assassination and murder
of children in the first day in the opening salvo of Operation Epic Fury, Epstein's Fury,
whatever you want to call it.
But the assassination also cleared the field for some of these hardliners to seize control
over the Iranian government.
It also hardened support for the IRGC and the Islamic Republic by many elements of Iranian
society that might have been on the edge of joining the rebellion or had joined the
masses that were experiencing tremendous discontent against the repressive state.
They rallied around the flag, as one does.
And not only that, but they established primacy over the Strait of Hormuz.
They now control this choke point that is responsible for 20% of the entire world's
energy supply.
Global markets are in a state of panic.
All born out of Donald Trump's idiotic attempts to lean into what Israel wanted in the region,
which is to create a failed state.
Create a failed state?
Yes, Obama.
Yes, Obama is an 11-month subscriber.
Barack Hussein Obama is in this community for those of you who don't know.
He watches.
He's a big, he's a big fan.
Yeah, across official rhetoric, Sina 2C reports, military signaling how many new appointments
Iran is consolidating a more aggressive deterrence posture as hormones in the blockade war becomes
a test of attrition that Iran may counterescalate more sharply ahead of midterms to maximize
costs for Trump.
That is where we're at.
So Iran is taking a more aggressive posture against America, against Western allies.
All the while Donald Trump is complaining about Iran's refusal to back away when they
have maximum leverage, maximum leverage that we gave them with our missteps.
And now we're threatening Iran with more crippling economic sanctions.
because we already have the maximum sanctions package on Iran, because we have the maximum
economic sanctions package on Iran, all we can do is sanction other countries. But considering
that the other countries that Iran relies on for normal economic activity are either
untouchable by the united states of america like china
have already been victim to america's maximum uh... sanctions package like
russia
not entirely certain how this will go well i am certain how this will go it'll
be a failure
all of its allies to put together the greatest coordinated economic isolation
in the history of the world
if you insist on
the uh... doing business with them but can you imagine
iran has maximum leverage over the street of hormones
iran has already caused enough iranian proxies or or you know other
uh... parts of the acts of resistance have already
uh... caused instability for saudi arabia and continue to do so
and also their uh... you know
lasering some of the ship's transiting through the bubble monday straight
and then on top of that america
has no leverage against china
america has no military deterrence against china america has no economic
deterrence against china and as a matter of fact china has endless amounts of
leverage over
uh... over
uh... creating
complete global chaos
they are the reason why
they are the reason why the oil prices have remained uh... stable relatively
stable or have increased
and and haven't spiked to uh... normal
conditions
have not been adjusted the normal conditions of like
diminishing twenty percent of the uh... the the uh... oil shipments coming out
of the state of or mose
because they cut down
their oil imports
china could literally turn around and say okay we're purchasing oil at the
normal rate that we were supposed to we're going to refill our strategic
petroleum reserves
virtually overnight
china could collapse the oil markets
if they were to increase their uh... demand
if they were not to increase the demand necessarily but if they were to start
purchasing
uh... start importing oil back to regular levels
all of a sudden
all of a sudden
america's position would be worse
so iran maintains the military leverage in the region china maintains the
economic leverage globally, and America's talking about offering a D-day of sanctions to, I guess, China?
Because who could they actually deploy the economic D-day weapon on?
Because Iran has already carved out of the international trade design for years now.
So who could you possibly deploy the sanctions package on?
You can't do it to Pakistan because Pakistan is an American ally.
You can't do it to, like, who are you supposed to sanction?
Yemen?
And you definitely can't do it to, like I said, you definitely can't do it to China.
So my question is, you know, who are you going to do this to?
either transferring money buying their oil they're doing seaborn ship
transport first then the US Treasury and the US government it will put its full
might and force toward enforcing against you. So the US is also imposing new
sanctions against Hezbollah and disemnaying the Lebanese militant group
is an Iranian proxy joining me now Edward Fishman former different man
in international relations scholar he's the author of the book Choke Points
American power in the age of economic warfare.
It's nice to have you with us this morning.
So, you know, I should point out there are some signs here
that this economic approach is having some impact,
but we're also dealing with a brutal regime,
which we know is not necessarily moved
by the plight of its citizens when they are suffering.
How long do you think this regime will and can hold out?
In your mind, is it months?
Could it be years?
Well, look, Erica, the track record of economic pressure bringing about regime change is very
poor.
So I don't think we should expect the Iranian regime to collapse under economic pressure.
I mean, go back even to Trump's first term, when Trump launched a maximum pressure strategy
against Venezuela, the Venezuelan economy declined by about 75%.
It was one of the biggest peacetime collapses we've seen of an economy, and Maduro stayed
in power until Trump launched the Maduro raid earlier this year.
So I don't think we can expect the Iranian regime just to collapse under economic pressure
alone.
There's also what I find interesting is we heard from the Treasury Secretary from Scott
Besson saying that it's unlikely that the U.S. is going to resume any large-scale fighting
here.
The reality in making those comments, while in some ways they may have been meant
to soothe perhaps certain parties, Iran is listening to that as well.
100%, right? I think the Iranians understand that Trump doesn't want to fight a war. And
this economic D-day just sort of strikes everybody as Trump trying to seem tough and
showing that he's doing something when he doesn't actually want to go back to the battlefield.
What I'd also note, and a very important point here, is that Iran has been under comprehensive
sanctions for decades. So really the only thing left to do on sanctions is to target
Iran's trading partners. And really their top trading partner by far is China. And with
Xi Jinping set to come to the White House in just about a month, it strikes me as pretty
unlikely that Trump wants to ignite an economic war with China right now.
Which is fascinating.
Yeah, not only, not only is, is it the timing makes it so stupid. Not only is the timing
may be so goddamn stupid because Xi Jinping is coming to America, but America has no economic
leverage over China, which Donald Trump learned the hard way. Where's Hassan? Well, Hassan
already gave his analysis and now this expert is repeating it. That's why Hassan doesn't
need to be on camera all the time, because I was pissing. Okay.
And it's always cope. It's always unbelievable cope from these
guys. Well, they'll be like, Oh, well, it's because like
Iran can withstand these sanctions because they have a
repressive state. It's like, no. That's, I mean, that's,
that's not the real reason why Iran can withstand the
the sanctions now, the real reason why Iraq was saying the sanctions now is because it's
withstood the sanctions for 47 years. They've designed their entire economy. They've been
forced to design their entire economy around survival, around the sanctions.
Okay?
Once you deploy the sanctions nuke, the trade nuke, on a foreign adversary for a decade plus,
they have to survive.
So they find ways around it.
It's that simple.
And you can't do it to China because Donald Trump tried to do it to China.
Donald Trump tried to decouple the rest of the world from China.
That was the whole purpose of Liberation Day.
If you recall, when Donald Trump tried to do Liberation Day, one element of Liberation
Day that was at least smart, but at least there was a logical reason behind it.
There was something motivating it beyond Trump's personal animus towards countries
like Brazil for prosecuting Bolsonaro. With China, there was a broader goal, and that was
to decouple by force the rest of China's trading partners and pry them away from the manufacturing
hub of the planet because that gave China, and it has consistently given China, tremendous
leverage. Tremendous economic leverage, tremendous power over negotiations, and America wants
to, one, reinstall a robust manufacturing base on U.S. soil. Not sure how they're going
to do that without central planning. But basically, what Liberation Day was supposed
to do was bully our allies, Canada, Germany, EU, India, and our allies or countries that
we have normal trade relations with in the Asian region, in the Asian continent, Asia-Pacific
region, to move away from China and to develop more extensive trade relations with the
United States of America by force, they wanted, you know, they wanted these
countries, including places like Cambodia, to purchase American things that
we're making. Okay. And it failed because China turned around and said,
fuck you. China turned around and refused to bend, as I correctly told
you was going to happen at the time, said, we're not going to, we're not going to bend,
we're not going to buckle under the maximum trade, the maximum sanctions package. You
need us more than we need you. And they were right. China has already created secondary
markets for this exact purpose. Africa is now flourishing for this reason, right?
It's one of the areas that China is selling to.
First China worked to develop Africa, as it continuously does, it continues to do so,
and then China started selling to Africa, Mexico, Latin American countries, in an effort to
to withstand some kind of, in an effort to withstand
some kind of, you know, American sanctions package.
And then also on top of that, when Donald Trump tried to,
tried to renege on the agreement that they were,
the agreement that America and China were negotiating,
China then said that they would,
Institute, strategic export controls over rare earth minerals and magnets.
These are incredibly important for defense.
This is what we make our missiles with.
So when China actually floated the idea of doing strategic export controls, America
had to back away.
This was America waving the white flag.
Varifakis said China needed more of the US than the other way around, because China
is the net exporter.
I don't think Verifocus is right on that. Does China still need the U.S.? Absolutely.
But does America need China more than China needs America? That is absolutely correct.
The U.S. is about 15% of China's customer base. For China, this is very tiny compared
other countries? No, but 15% is still ginormous. I think Yanis is obviously much smarter than
I am, understands is much better than I do, but my estimation, of course, China still
wants global stability, China still wants to continue selling products to the United
States of America, but does China have more leverage over the United States of America?
I think yes, I think China has, and Yanis wouldn't disagree with that either. China
has more leverage over the United States of America. It can eat some economic pain as it did,
right? But also, simultaneously, it can present a far greater threat to American manufacturing
than vice versa.
But the reason why I'm bringing this up is because we already learned this lesson last
time around. I know Trump learned this lesson last time around.
Right, and I'm so glad you brought that up because as we look at this, right, when that
visit looming, how could even just this announcement, how could that impact those discussions and
the visit itself?
Oh, could impact the visit completely, right? I mean, I think let's see what Secretary
Besin actually announces in terms of sanctions on Monday. But if you actually took Trump
at his word, and this is going to be unprecedented economic sanctions, economic e-day, there's
no way for that to be true unless there's aggressive sanctions on Chinese banks, Chinese
energy companies, all of the Chinese companies that basically provide Iran with a lifeline
to the global economy.
If Trump actually were to do that, I think it would totally blow up the Trump sheet,
is it?
And I would expect that that visit wouldn't happen, and you may even have Chinese
retaliation, right?
You will absolutely get Chinese retaliation in this process. America has already tried
to float this idea in this last iteration of the conflict. The United States of America
tried to say that Chinese companies that are still engaging in trade with Iran and banks
that are processing this trade, Chinese banks, will receive sanctions. This was a couple
months ago. And China's retaliation was, suck my dick. China turned around and said, we are
not abiding by American sanctions, we are going to continue doing what we're doing.
China since then has created even more leverage. Because not only does China have the leverage
that it showed it had during the Liberation Day back and forth tariffs battle that Donald
Trump lost, that was two years ago. China also has another unbelievable volatility nuke
at its disposal now. Not only do we no longer have the capacity to threaten China militarily,
that died in the Gulf of Persia, but we also did not have a sanctions threat against China
as we saw with the uh... liberation day uh... back and forth uh... struggle
that we lost but now on top of that
china could just increase imports of oil
into the country
and if they were to do that
uh... liberation it was only a year ago shit sorry okay i was wrong
my apologies
it feels like a lifetime ago it feels like it was ten years ago i'm gonna be
honest
i can't believe it's been only a year
once again
china could explode
the global energy markets
and that's part of the reason why
this region when besset was asked about china directly
he kind of shot away from naming the the player here
but does it include china because that's the primary economic partner of
of iran
again many conversations are best to have
and private
and we we are confident that everyone wants these freight reopened
and for energy prices to come back down
So keep in mind that the Chinese get 50% 5.0
the other energy from the Gulf.
So it would do them a big service to get with the program.
I suspect that if they try to sanction
If they try to sanction China, if America tries to sanction China, China will say, okay, well,
it turns out we got to rebuild our strategic petroleum reserves, big dog.
Sucks to suck, but sorry, we're going to have to do that.
Now this will create short-term pain for China and major pain, possible irreparable
damage, cause possible irreparable damage to their immediate trade partners in Asia.
But it certainly will not be great for the United States of America.
So it's not in China's best interest to nuke the entire planet.
And that is the reason why they've maintained price stability by nuking their demand for
oil and not the man necessarily but nuking their imports of oil.
But if they were to open up the faucet, this would not be beneficial for America at all.
Remember last year when China cut off our access to rare earth minerals, it really upended
supply chains here in the United States.
So that's to say, if we could take Trump out of his word, it would significantly impale
the visit.
But I'm skeptical we're actually going to go in that direction.
I also found interesting some recent comments from Chris Christie when he was talking
about the war recently and the way-
Look, here's the calculation from the Chinese side versus what America is doing.
Okay, China is behaving as the adult in the room as it has over and over again.
They're bailing us out one more time.
But at some point, they're going to, at some point, they're going to have to recalculate.
Is it appropriate, is it appropriate to keep bailing out America?
Or is it important for everyone to, you know, suffer a blow here?
In the short term, if that means that America learns the hard way, a long-term lesson, it's
kind of like when you're a kid and you sneak in a cigarette and you find a Lucy and you
smoke it and then your father catches you and then he makes you fucking smoke the entire
carton.
For the longest time, China has been like, cigarettes are bad for you.
Don't smoke it.
Here is a sugar cigarette, like a fake one, if you want to play around with that instead.
Trying to get turned around and go, all right, you have to smoke the entire carton of cigarettes.
Unkass analogy?
I don't know.
I just, I feel like I had to come up with something and that's the only thing I could
think of.
didn't happen to you a son that was bobby hill i know i'm i'm using a common story
and ministry for an affair says china poses unilateral sanctions that like
basic international law and u.s. security council mandate military force and
pressure tactics will only lead to escalation that serves no one's interest
we call on parties to act responsibly and solve disputes through dialogue and
negotiation.
The problem with your analysis is that America would learn the wrong long term
lesson. No.
No, I don't think so.
Because whether they want to admit it or not,
they've already learned a devastating lesson in the Strait of Hormuz,
right?
I'm sorry. Here's the thing. Okay. Here's the thing. Here's the thing.
We are like a spoiled child, okay?
We're like a bad baby.
America's like a playground bully.
But even a playground bully will sometimes meet a force
that is more powerful than the playground bully, okay?
The playground bully will sometimes go up against
another bully that's bigger than they are.
Maybe someone who is from an upper class, right?
Like an upperclassman that beats the fuck out of them.
And maybe the bully goes back home, licks his wounds,
comes back around and continues to, you know,
engage in more evasive maneuvers,
but will still bully some of the weaker kids,
some of the more vulnerable kids, sure, right?
America received a bloody nose in the Strait of Hormuz.
It destroyed its capacity to engage in force projection.
America can no longer engage in force projection
in the Asia Pacific theater for this reason.
It is now 100% the reality.
It's impossible to avoid said reality.
We went in to the Shredivore Moose.
We went into Iran thinking that we would destroy
the Iranian government with ease
through an aerial bombardment campaign
decapitation strike and it didn't work. Okay? So now we can't do that in the Taiwan Strait,
in the Taiwanese Strait. So whether Donald Trump postures as though he has the smoke,
as though he still has the power, as though he still has the upper hand here, it doesn't really
matter. Most military analysts understand the reality, right? And the same goes for Trump's
trade posture. He views this moment and Donald Trump. Take a listen to that.
Donald Trump is about to become what he never, ever wanted to be, Jimmy Carter.
He is being held hostage by Iran. They are holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage.
As a result, they're holding the world economy hostage and it's focused at Donald Trump and
I know from talking to him over the last 24 years, the one person he would never want to
talk too much about Jimmy Carter.
And here we are, and it was all voluntary.
Right, to the point of Iran watching how all of this is playing out here, that is very
much a focus, right, to see how things are playing at home and to understand what
it would be like to have that Jimmy Carter moment or to be in the midst of it right now.
Is Iran fully exploiting that? What more do you think could come?
Oh, certainly. I mean, I think the Iranians, I've understood now, since March, right,
since the very beginning of the war, that their control of the Strait of Hormuz,
the world's most important energy choke point, gives them a huge amount of leverage over.
How much do you think the midterms factor into this? Oh, huge. Everybody is
is a lasered in on American elections.
Iran is,
Iran is lasered in on,
Iran is laser focused on American elections.
China is laser focused on American elections.
Of course, everyone makes these sorts of decisions
by thinking about like domestic pressure,
by thinking about the potential domestic pressure
that could be applied to the United States of America,
it's normal.
It seems that Asia is a J Street back candidate.
Yeah, as opposed to the A-Pack back candidate chatter,
what the fuck do you want?
Yeah, Ana Lillia-Mahio was as well,
what do you want me to do?
Like I'm sorry,
Just because J Street backed the issue will hop doesn't change the doesn't
change the reality that APAC dumped $6 million into that race over the course
of 17 days.
Okay.
We take what we can get Bernie is a J Street back candidate.
The United States, because remember, in any sort of economic standoff,
what matters isn't so much who inflicts more damage on the other side's GDP.
What matters is which side has the capacity to withstand whatever pressure they're under.
And I think the Iranians have assessed that even though their economy is certainly suffering
much more from a sort of quantitative standpoint than the United States, that America's tolerance
for economic pain is a lot lower than theirs is.
And I think that's just going to be Iran's strategy moving forward.
I, where Fishman, really appreciate your time and your, and your viewpoint this
morning.
Thank you.
Beijing's foreign ministry said, quote,
sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution.
That's vis-a-vis Iran.
This, as President Trump declared what he called
an economic d-day on Iran.
And this is how Treasury Secretary Scott Besin said
that the economic activity would affect
the military operation.
If we are doing the maximum economic pressure,
then that means that likely there will not be
a large-scale kinetic restart.
But I would emphasize that is for now.
Well, this now is Congressman Richard McCormick,
a Republican from Georgia.
He is a member of the Armed Services Committee.
Congressman, great to see you.
So economic D-day, but the Treasury Secretary there,
did he just tell the Iranians that likely for now
no more military strikes?
It kind of sounds like that.
I really don't know.
I don't want to interpret what he's trying to say,
it didn't sound like he wanted to, although he doesn't make that decision.
That's the Secretary of War and the President, directly, the Commander-in-Chief gets to make
that decision at him.
Hell, I get that interview, of course, sir.
Weren't we already sanctioning them to hell?
What else can we do to them?
No, it's literally the point.
Yes, we have, we've already been sanctioning them to hell.
There's not anything else that we can do in terms of sanctions.
We already hit them with the maximum sanctions package for decades now.
The only thing we could technically do is maybe sanction some of Iran's trade partners,
but because there have already been secondary sanctions on Iran, because there's like two
different kinds of sanctions, right?
You one, you directly sanction the country and therefore they can't conduct normal
trade, right?
They can't sell to the United States of America, but then you can apply secondary
sanctions as well, a process in which they can't do trade with other American trade partners,
right? Secondary sanctions are not against Iran directly, but against, you know, Iranian
trade partners like France or Germany, if they were to conduct normal trade with Iran,
then they get hit with American sanctions, and therefore they can't do it. They don't
want to, they don't want to trade with Iran because they're fearful that America
will sanction them instead, right?
Arnaud Bertrand says, pretty confident any country won't include China. Hard to imagine
the US declare economic delay on China and a painful weeks before she's visit. Back
in May, the US tried to sanction some Chinese refiners are buying or hunting oil. Yep.
And China's commerce ministry issued a formal prohibition order stipulating that
US sanctions shall not be recognized enforced or complied with effectively putting a line
in the sand, the US then basically blinked and never meaningfully enforced the sanctions.
It would have meant sanctioning major Chinese financial institutions are probable consequence
for the entire global financial system, which they were obviously not ready to do, which
means this is what I was talking about, which means that any country literally means
any country we can actually coerce, which is a shrinking list precisely because the
more you coerce, the more countries build antibodies against it.
America is not not only seen as a paper tiger it with its military supremacy.
America is now an economic paper tiger as well or military pilot yourself who helicopters
and as we say always thank you for your service there but it is their Treasury Secretary there
and if you are among the Iranian leadership and you heard the Treasury Secretary of
the United States say, you know, it means likely no more kinetic actions as long as
these maximum economic pressures are in place. How would you feel about behaving in the
Strait of Hormuz?
Well, first of all, we haven't seen any good behavior from Iran anyways. They've been
defiant the entire time, whether they had the MOU or any other time. I've never
had any rhetoric come out of them that showed me that they had, that they had any
intention of being good actors. They've done nothing but threaten us for years, for decades
really, this entire regime. They've killed about a thousand Americans, including three
Georgians a couple of years ago with a drone attack through poxies. They've attacked us
about 40 times. This is before the war. Since the war, they've been even more defiant.
They've even talked about raining fire down from heaven. We are the great Satan
to them. There is no real good solution except for regime change and unconditional
I don't think we're going to get to that by economic sanctions, but realize that things
change very rapidly over there.
And I think that even though he's talking about no kinetic actions right now, that can
change literally within an hour.
So, so the president, you say you do not think we will get there by economic actions
because that's the stage the United States appears to be in right now.
He's talking about maximum economic activity there, economic D-day, full scale, like
the world has never seen, but you don't think that will be enough.
I don't see any time where this country has shown anything but defiance.
I think we should have put that on them from the very beginning.
Of course, I'm also one of those people that thought we never should be at peace with these
guys until they came to unconditional surrender, until they came to regime change because
this regime will threaten your ch-
This is- I think this is all hot smoke, okay?
It's nothing.
just blow and smoke up one another's asses over and over again. What matters is the reality
on the ground. Okay. I, I expect Americans to engage in this like militant posture.
They're all war hawks who gives a shit. Okay. You got our military and tatters. You got
people trying to kill themselves on u s s lincoln
you have
american bases that have been
thoroughly dismantled and destroyed you have american assets moving further
and further out west
or further away from the golf
by force because iran destroyed these bases
iran is capable of
sufficiently threatening
the remaining american assets
that are on
uh... uh... golf bases around the region
it doesn't matter it doesn't matter what we say here in the united states of
america word
we're basically just lying to ourselves lying to one another
making it seem as though uh... we have any kind of of military posture here
that will will
somehow magically carve out a victory
it's not going to happen
everybody in the region understands that
most american military analysts understand that
most american intelligence assessments recognize that reality outside third
party
think tanks understand that reality
it's a declining empire
that can no longer establish military supremacy
so to say all we can just do this we could just hit him hard we can hit him
hard issues pure cope
we are delaying the inevitable but we're not even delaying it
We're just delaying our recognition of the inevitable.
Children, they will threaten your grandchildren.
They will be always trying to develop nuclear weapons
and ballistic missiles.
They will be stabilized the entire Middle East
and the entire world geopolitical scheme
as long as they're in existence.
This would be absolutely transformative
to get rid of this regime, which is very evil.
And by the way, don't forget.
Yeah, yeah, it'd be transformative.
Yeah, of course.
It would be, you're right.
But is it possible? Is it probable? Is it likely? The answer is no. It's not. And the more we lean into this kind of thing, the worse the situation gets.
Okay? Mark Ames says if Trump means what he writes here is threatening economic warfare on Russia and China, among other countries, unless they join his siege warfare on Iran, it's like the final act scarface shit is always the trick of sorting the bluster and bluff from the kernel of intent.
It's nothing.
The nuclear aircraft carriers took the space that would have been occupied by a fuck ton
of fuel and turned it into extra freezer space so the guys aboard the carriers are used to
eating really good.
Them living on rice and tortillas right now, yeah, it's kind of amazing things haven't
gotten more haywire.
It appears to have reconciled with one of his most outspoken critics.
His name, Michael Cohen.
You may remember he turned on Trump after working as his political fixer.
This week, he interviewed the president who suggested that Cohen was forced to testify
against him.
Ed O'Keefe is at the White House with him.
Yeah, this is Trump, not Trump, but another former Trump fixer turning back to Trump
once again.
Anyway hold on before we get into the Michael Cohen story friend of the show
Michael Cohen shows us his shows us what he's really about but before we get
into that let's let's continue let's let's wrap this up okay
Allied scale the notion of historic US Cold War studio allies will cooperate to
cut China out of global markets is a fantasy we really need to move away from, says Marcus
Stanley from Quincy Institute.
The analytic core of this proposal is basically just adding up GDPs of the U.S. NATO, traditional
Asia Pacific allies, noting that it's significantly larger than China and applying a liberal
dose of wishful thinking.
These countries lack incentives and in many cases the capability to cut economic
China. Recent moves by the US to coerce one-sided economic benefits from allies don't help.
They hear at all. That doesn't mean countries want to be dependent on China either. We need
to innovate forms of cooperation that make sense for a global economy that maintains
significant interdependence, and where China continues to be a major player.
Yeah, it wouldn't be called against China, but it would be effectively an alliance
to create a bigger market outside of China.
The world that Ezra Klein, oh, that's why, that's where this is coming from.
Brad Setser, CFR Senior Fellow, went on Ezra Klein's podcast, The China Shock 2.0, and
I guess explained Trump's thinking.
That makes sense, explained like Trump's, it's so funny, these guys all used to
to get mad at Donald Trump for taking this like militant trade posture against China.
And now every single one of these people are just like, no, Trump is actually not doing
the wrong thing against China.
It's actually a good idea.
Yes, Trump does have a unique trade design, Chatters.
So there is thinking driving.
There is something motivating Trump's decisions against China is just, it's a failure.
It's just, it's, it failed.
That's the problem.
You understand?
I know it's, it's fun to say Trump is thinking, Trump's thinking about burgers.
Trump doesn't think like, yes, you're right.
But there is, there is definitely a, a different attitude with Trump's trade policy and trade
posture against China versus the previous American trade policy with respect to China.
And I guess this CFR fellow went on Ezra Klein and explained the second China shock, its
causes, its consequences, including for American workers, it wouldn't be called against China,
would be effectively do we have a video I would love to watch that video by the way
wouldn't be called against China but it would be effectively analyze to create a bigger market
outside of China with sometimes common barriers to China that would have allied
allied scale would be big enough that it would easily support competitive EV industry that
didn't rely on Chinese power and a competitive magazine industry that didn't rely on China and
and so on and so forth.
Where should we have gone? I think we should have moved in that direction.
There are ways to do better coordination of industrial policies too,
but basically extend our security alliances and the economic alliances,
try to compete with China, don't give up.
Don't accept that every EV in the world is going to be made in China,
which is a realistic outcome right now.
China can expand its EV production capacity,
and has enough spare capacity to meet all global demand.
So the entire EV industry could be Chinese production.
China is supplying 10% of the European auto market. There's a future where it could supply 70%.
What is this? Help? At some point during COVID, I came up with the scheme to create a
a captains account where I lure men with thirst traps.
We said no more Magdy Jacobs posting and we are standing by that.
We are standing by the hard stance.
There is an economic blockade against Mag DJ posting.
I feel like it's sad.
You're kicking someone who's like very clearly going through a long and extended mental health
episode.
Okay?
Yeah, it's not funny.
She's just not all right.
She is not well.
She is not mentally doing alright.
Yes, I have already delivered a FATWA.
Yeah, high-key low-cal farming, but leftistly is right.
Yes, I have already issued a FATWA.
Does Ezra not want you on?
No, he does.
We're going to link up.
He in the world right now.
Is China's growing dominance across advanced manufacturing
sector after advanced manufacturing sector?
from electric vehicles, batteries, to solar panels,
to things that aren't even traditional manufacturing
that are software like AI and open models
where they become a world leader.
What is happening here is very different
than what we call the first China shock
where China became a big exporter
but of things that were not that important
to advanced economies.
Things that mattered maybe for particular communities,
mattered for many, many jobs,
but weren't the frontier of economic growth.
But now it's different. China is very much at the frontier and they're dominating it.
And that is going to transform geopolitics. It is going to transform the politics of countries,
many say in Europe, where China is pushing them out of manufacturing that has been
the absolute cornerstone of their economies. And so I think understanding it is about as a-
Dude, Ezra Klein is, by my estimations, much more interested in movements on the left,
even if it's to co-opt it, even if it's to, like, liberalize it, it doesn't matter.
I think there's a real opportunity, and I know people will always, you guys hate him, I know.
But I put Ezra Klein in the same category as I put the Podjohns.
Perhaps I'm wrong about this, but
That is my that's my assessment
Essential to understanding economics and geopolitics in the coming era as literally anything else
I also am an unashamed unapologetic
Ezra Klein watcher Ezra Klein reader. It's very important to understand
Uh a a leading thinker of liberalism. Okay. He's the king of the libs
Let's be real. It's important to understand where liberals are going. We used to jokingly watch
SNL every Sunday
Why did we watch it because we wanted to understand how liberals think what liberals laugh at what what motivates liberals?
He is the king of the the liberal intelligentsia
And it's it's really important when the king of liberal intelligence
Agency it turns around and says stuff like mom Donnie would be just like any other liberal mayor
He's not actually talking about Andrew Cuomo he's saying like other liberal mayors would do similar things mom Donnie
I disagree with him on that but it doesn't matter
He's trying to take ownership over the left flank and then say no no no
This is what liberalism as a big tent looks like
Okay
Rod Setzer is a person who follows his about as closely as anyone on earth.
He is a senior fellow at the council forum relations.
He has served in top trade roles and economic roles in the Biden and Obama administrations.
And so I want to hear his perspective on it.
He joins me now.
Rod Setzer, welcome to the show.
Oh, thanks for inviting me.
So, you've been arguing that the world economy is going through a China shock 2.0.
I mean, okay, right off the rip.
I don't even disagree with this assessment.
It is true.
It is true.
China is the domineering manufacturing power of the entire planet is the manufacturing
hub of the entire planet.
And it's no longer just like light industries or, you know, forever 21 fast fashion clothing.
It's also very important, very important industries that in the past were kept for national security
concerns in the hands of domestic manufacturing.
We allowed this to happen.
And yes, this is a very important point of leverage for China.
It's a very important leverage, a point of leverage for China, okay?
And it also complicates the rest of the world's relationship with China, because if they don't
have, if we don't have any domestic manufacturing, and China is always capable of out-competing
us in terms of manufacturing, okay, shouts out the NAFTA, shouts out the neoliberalism
for that by the way.
But if we can't, if we don't have any sort of domestic manufacturing, we have nothing.
It's not even just like a national security problem at that point.
It's a major issue overall, okay?
Because then we're just not producing anything.
We don't have any jobs.
So, for people not familiar with us, what was China Shock 1.0?
2002.
What happens is there's a big jump up in China's exports.
And at the time, it's mostly in relatively low-end manufacturer goods, furniture, household
appliances, clothing.
And as you can see, there was a sense in the US that these were not the industries of the
future.
And I think what the China shock 1.0 academic literature shows is that even though these
weren't the industries of the future, they were still employing a meaningful number of
Americans, often in the South, often in the Midwest.
And the China shock is how that impacted local, not national, local labor markets
that had the most overlap with China.
And this has sort of a short run negative effect
on parts of the economy.
You know, when the local factory closes down,
local real estate prices turn down.
And so, and the people who sell lunches
to the factory workers have fewer people to sell to.
So it becomes a generalized downturn in those communities.
That was clearly underestimated.
And then people have done all sorts of further studies,
which correlate the areas that have the most exposure
to the Chinese export wave to deaths of despair,
to political realignments.
Voting for Donald Trump.
Voting for Donald Trump.
But the basic idea here is that you have a bunch of places
in the Midwest and the South primarily
that are manufacturing towns.
That their factories are outsourced China
or the goods are competed by China.
and basically the community goes into sharp decline.
Correct.
And we never have a very good policy answer.
I mean, I think at the time,
we didn't even try to have a policy answer,
but it is actually conceptually difficult
to deal with the decline of a small town
when it's big industry.
Let's live in that debate for a minute.
What is the argument about whether or not
this rapidly accelerating level of trade with China
is good or bad for America?
Yes, I have a wig on. I have a two-pack.
Thank you.
The overarching view at the time was that China's integration into the global
economy was more or less inevitable.
And that the negotiated terms of entry into the WTO provided a reasonable
framework for China's entry full integration into the global economy
that trade was fundamentally good, that there would be shifts across industries, people would leave their jobs and import competing parts of the economy, but generally moved to exporting parts of the economy or into the services sector,
in that we had a fairly flexible labor market.
And by the way, integration would be a positive force
for China's political development.
It might lead to some forms of liberalism within China.
It might moderate China's global ambitions.
It would sort of, the commerce would tame the dragon,
so to speak.
And the other dimension of the argument, as I've heard it and remember it is, if China
wants to make cheap goods for Americans, people like low prices, they like low inflation,
like why would we fight this gift?
I mean, in particular, because the industries that were going to China were not the source
of top cutting edge technology at the time, not generating a lot of high wage jobs.
So there was indeed a sense that consumers would benefit and did benefit from cheap goods
and the adjustment would not threaten the core strengths of the American economy and
that was the belief.
I would put a little tiny asterisk around the cheap prices thing.
Unambiguously China's explosion of exports lowered the price of manufacturers.
If you look at the overall evolution of consumer prices during this period, there's not much
of a change.
China's integration into the world economy led in huge amounts of investment, ended up
putting a lot of upward pressure on commodity prices.
So you see oil prices really take off during this period, and that's an offsetting change.
So you got to always look at both sides of the ledger.
Yeah.
So when you're going to Target or Walmart and you're buying clothes and toys, I mean,
they really are cheaper.
Oh, yeah.
from when I was a kid. But you're saying that, you know, what we're not seeing there is, you know,
the price of oil, the price of... It cost you more to fill up your car and get to target.
But once you got to target, it was cheap. Okay, so trying to shock the reason we use this term is...
It's so funny because like this was America's grand trade design because it benefited the goals
of American capital. It benefited the short-term goals of American capital because labor is
the most malleable aspect of production, and it's the only movable aspect of production.
And therefore, the easiest way to reduce labor costs was to move it instead of engaging
in like suppression of unionization, which we were doing, right, which American capital
had never led up on, they were able to move it to an entirely separate low cost labor
force altogether. And the problem, and this has always been the biggest issue with China
in general, is that China, by way of redistributive policies and through central planning, right,
the, you know, small C communism of China, was able to take that foreign investment
and turn it into internal development. The problem, the issue with China is that China
developed and became a competitive power and gained sovereignty. Okay? Or always was invested
in developing sovereignty for itself. That's the issue that we have with China. That's the problem
with the grand China design. If if China developed in the same way that like India developed,
we would have no issues with China. No disrespect to India. Obviously, it's a different story.
Maybe it's much more complex, but the reason why we hate China and see China as a foreign
adversary is not even because of the ideological battle that we have with China at secondary.
The real issue with China is that China was able to take the foreign investment and
not circulate the foreign investment in the same way that capitalist countries do.
India literally has similar levels of economic planning.
No, India is far too diverse, wasn't capable of dealing with or wasn't as invested in
even development in the same way.
to say that india has the same level of central planning is crazy
india also has separate uh... separate issues
that were greatly elevated initially by
colonial powers it's not a one-to-one comparison is a very
it is a very
reductive comparison
it's not
uh... it's not an appropriate comparison
I'm just looking at it specifically from the perspective of like what's that guy's name,
the Noah guy, Noah Pinyon, like he loves India.
He always presents India as this bulwark against China and a much better alternative.
Like I'm just flipping that script on its head.
And it's not like China did not liberalize, they did.
But even through the marketization period, even through the liberalization of the Chinese
economy after the Denguist reforms, there was always still a hyper-focus on development.
And especially in the Xi period, now they're cracking down on some of the concentration
of power that exists within the party system after they brought in the billionaire
class.
They developed a billionaire class, the national bourgeois, as they call it, and then they basically stamped out some of the national bourgeois that had maybe a little bit too much power, okay?
So there's a push and pull there, and China, for all intents and purposes, has been able to manage that,
manage that, that friction,
and has kept capital under control.
whole. India never did. Also, the Indian history of colonialism is different than China as
well. That's why it's not a direct comparison that you can make. Yeah, China was never
completely colonized. But again, ultimately, the major difference between China and India
is capital controls. That is the main function of the government and the main difference between
the government. The only reason why people still in some way shape or in some way shape
still consider the Chinese governance to be a version of some level of proletarian governance,
regardless of the repression, regardless of, you know, the Marxist-Leninist formation,
one party state, one party communist state, is because at the end of the day,
there is still some level of control over both flows of capital
capital and control over the capitalists, okay?
They still serve the interests of the party and the party is supposed to serve the interests
of the masses.
That is a huge difference.
That's a major difference in Chinese development as opposed to development in India.
And that is the major difference as to why we see India as a reliable trade partner
and ally at times, even though they have their own sovereign interests in the region.
They have their own sovereign interests as an economic power.
They play both sides, like Russia, for example, as opposed to in China.
We see China as a major foreign adversary, if not the most consequential foreign adversary
of the 21st century, is because China took all of that foreign investment, and that
foreign investment came into China.
And then what they did with that foreign investment was to develop the country and
and make it a behemoth, a competitive superpower.
In some respects, if you were to look at this as global capitalism, the capital-owning class,
the bourgeois class in China, is still beholden to the interests of the party, is still subservient
to the interests of the party, as opposed to the Indian capitalist class is a part
of the global capitalist class. So they play ball. They're not unpredictable. They're not
they're not a force that I don't know, like a French capitalist is ever going to be fearful of.
Does that make sense?
And if it wasn't for Xi Jinping, by my estimation, if the party had moved in the
opposite direction and continued liberalizing, the Chinese capital class, the Chinese bourgeois
would probably also be in the same category, and therefore we would not be looking at China
as this scary behemoth as we do right now.
Because it's not just about improving the living standards of as many Chinese people as possible.
It's also about whether or not our international capitalist class can
look at the Chinese capital owning class and and see them as allies the problem at
least for my assessment is that is the element of I guess nationalism is a
scary words dangerous word it's it's not entirely correct to say that the the
Chinese bourgeois class are nationalists, but it is a national bourgeois class to a certain degree.
So is the connective tissue communism or is the connective tissue there nationalism?
That's where things get a little bit more tricky.
But the reason why China was allowed into the World Trade Organization,
The reason why China was allowed to participate in the global markets as a regular force, as
a regular manufacturing hub, initially was because of that liberalization.
Because that liberalization created this major force within Chinese politics that was then
brought into the party, right?
And that these folks, the Chinese bourgeois, were now a part of the party apparatus, and they were gaining a lot of power within the party until Xi Jinping.
Ping. That's why if you look back at China from the perspective of our capitalist media,
from the perspective of our capital owning class, if you go back to like the 2000s, our
media are super wealthy. They didn't see China as this like major threat at all. I mean,
There were obviously nationalist elements in the country that did.
There are plenty of people who've been complaining about Chinese manufacturing for decades at
this point.
Initially, it was the left, and then it turned into somewhat of a right-wing position.
Trade protectionism has moved from the left to a right-wing position at this point in
some weird ways.
There are still elements of the left that engage in trade protectionism.
I believe in trade protectionism as well, as long as we have some kind of trade to protect.
This is the reason why we see China as a major threat.
This whole argument got reevaluated.
Which parts of it would you say panned out and which didn't?
I think the extent to which China would become a big export market was overestimated.
China never was fully open to U.S. exports.
I mean, one of the more striking things is that after 2004, so two years after China's
WTO entry, China's imports as a share of its GDP start to fall.
And then it was not expected in a sense that China would succeed as much as it did while
retaining the core aspects of its different economic system.
There were the sense that China would have to converge, have to become more like...
It's so funny.
Because he's basically describing the exact same thing that I tried to also shittily
describe us.
politically, but certainly economically. You know, the state would wither away. So
it stayed on enterprises. We privatized, you know, 20 years after China's going to WTO,
China's economy was, you know, the thinking was it would kind of look like the U.S. or maybe
look like Europe. It wouldn't be distinctively Chinese. And that didn't pan out. What is
distinctively Chinese about the Chinese economy? That's a hard question. You know,
No, it's not. It is small C communists. That was distinct about the Chinese economy. It still, it still has central planning, although it's not central planning in the Soviet understanding of it.
Okay? It's not centrally planned in the way that you would see is this like vulgar Soviet meta. It's not centrally planned in the way that the Cuban economy is centrally planned.
It's much more dynamic. Okay? But ultimately, capital is subservient to the party. Capital is subservient to the government.
And the government is run by a party that is supposed to be subservient to the interests of the proletariat.
period. Okay? If you want the honest assessment of it, that's what it is. Cuba isn't centrally
planned anymore. No, I'm not talking about Cuba now, brother. I'm talking about Cuba
for the longest time. Cuba for the longest time was literally the last remaining real
Soviet-style economy on the planet. Like down to rations, down to the specific allotment of food
that you could get. That was a USSR-style economy. The Chinese economy is much more fluid, much more
dynamic than that. However, as I like to say, China uses capitalism like a sleeve.
Okay, if they have an iron fist they put the sleeve of capitalism over that iron fist
Okay
We're ultimately we're ultimately there are strict controls
It's still a centrally planned economy and
the the
Way that the central planned economy is designed is around control of capital control of capital flows
Okay
They still absolutely control which way they will pour money into.
There's also obviously, yes, corporate accountability and things like that, but ultimately they
even allow some level of corruption or some level of exploitation as long as that means
boosting trade, as long as that means improving the GDP.
So they're just state capitalists.
One could say all socialist formations run by communist governments have always been state
capitalists.
The whole point is it's a transitional socialist state.
Put the door man.
Yeah, I did.
One thing that is distinctly Chinese, which is not what you would normally think about
in a communist-led society is that China actually has a rather thin system of social insurance.
It doesn't actually collect that much tax. Personal income tax collections are like 1%
of China's GDP. It's 8% here. If you're not collecting personal income tax, you're not
going to be not going to have the resources to be very generous and helping low-wage work.
There's nothing like our earned income tax credit where you get a subsidy, basically.
Money back from the government if you don't get paid that much.
The taxation system relies heavily on taxes on consumption.
It's really quite regressive.
It hits poor Chinese workers much more heavily.
It also does not have a unified national...
He's not wrong.
This is not wrong. Yes, their tax structure, they have, they have a welfare state, but it is marginal.
It doesn't mean that their system is failing, mind you, but he's not wrong.
And this isn't to say that like, welfareism is the only solution. I'm just saying it's a different,
It's a different system.
The so-called hookah system basically means, you know, you're supposed to work where you
were born.
You can migrate and leave, but when you migrate and leave, you give up certain social rights.
You got a financial system that is fundamental.
Yes, it's not necessarily a robust welfare state, but there are a lot of social provisions
that you get as long as you stay within the area, but this used to be far more rigorous
back in the day.
It's not as stringent, it's not as strict, it is nowhere near as strict as it used
to be.
But yes, in a central planned economy, the original Chinese system had strict controls
over, I guess like internal freedom of movement, not necessarily freedom of movement, but just
like moving and like living and working in a different area in general.
Obviously, it's not, that wasn't always the case, because they also are very experimental
and have always been very experimental.
So I think like one of the most unique facets of Chinese development and Chinese governance
is how they treat, because they're so big, they're such a massive country, 1.4 billion
people, that they treat different provinces like different laboratories.
Like there's constant, it's very fluid, there's constant experimentation going on.
And the Hucco system has been reformed.
But basically, what it currently operates as is, like, let's say you are born in California
and you grew up in California, you went to school in California and the school is paid
for by California state taxes, not your local tax, not your property taxes.
and all of the amenities are paid for by the state taxes.
If you were to move from California to New York, there's a process where you have to
apply and there are restrictions.
You can move to New York, you can visit New York, you can even live in New York, but
you won't be able to get the same free healthcare, for example, that you would get in California.
Now in America, we don't even have free healthcare, so it doesn't fucking matter.
But that's what the current form of the Hukou system works as.
You can go and fucking live wherever you want in China, you can work wherever you want in
China.
It's just you won't have the same social benefits that you would have in the state that you
or the province that you were born into.
One version of the Hukou system in America, if you want to call it that, is kind
of like in-state tuition versus out-of-state tuition.
Right?
right? We don't really have additional amenities in our welfare state, so it's hard to make
this comparison in colleges expensive regardless of whether you're paying in state tuition or
not. But that is one version of the American hookah system. That's what's so fascinating
about it, that Americans will be like, what the fuck, that's crazy. They're just like,
kill you if you move away from your state. It's not, that's not the case.
Entity, state controlled, heavily banked, not so much, you know, like the Wall Street part of
the Chinese economy exists, but it's much smaller. The old fashioned put your money on deposit in a
state bank, very much the dominant mode of savings. And then the state banks intermediate
so they can direct credit towards the goals of the party, towards the goals of the government,
sometimes under the direction of the local government, sometimes under the direction
of the national government. The commanding heights of the Chinese economy are still primarily in the
hands of centrally owned state-owned enterprises. So this is why it's sometimes difficult to sell
to China. You want to sell soybeans. Actually, you have to...
But that's a state incentive, not a federal incentive.
Why would you want to encourage people not to move in keeping
in industrial labor force in certain areas in the country
by incentivizing them to stay at home?
Like what do you mean?
Think about how cities develop.
The Hukou system has always been very porous anyway.
Back in the day, people would just pay off a couple of officials
and get their kids in a better school in another area,
For example, my parents did that for me.
Lull, the bride was just a couple hundred Yuan.
There's also a lot of testing, as I said.
It's like a laboratory of governance,
like different forms of governance,
different modes of developing the economy.
And you need people for that.
In the United States of America,
there's like freedom of travel, but then again,
we don't really have a functioning welfare state anyway.
So people make those decisions on their own.
Like for example, you got MediCal,
but you could technically move to a state like Wisconsin
where there's badger care,
but it's much more restrictive than MediCal, right?
So technically that's a version of the Hukko system.
If you're moving to Wisconsin,
which is a lower cost site, a lower cost state in general,
but all of a sudden, or you move to Texas,
where you're not paying income tax, as you would,
in the state of California,
but now you're paying much higher property taxes.
So that's just, that's like one version of, I guess,
the upside down Hukou system.
And really sell to the state oil seeds monopoly.
You're not selling to an individual soybean crusher.
Selling airplanes to China.
you're selling to the big three-state airlines who act as a coordinated block,
telecommunications, you're selling to three state-owned companies whose executives
are picked by the party, who take direction centrally. And then on top of
that when the government sets a policy direction, you know, say we want to have
a semiconductor industry, ambitious provinces will say, well we should be
the province that builds up China's national champion. Here's an ambitious guy or girl.
Looks like they got a good idea. Here's a whole bunch of money. We're going to subsidize
your factory. Maybe we're going to take equity. We're going to make sure you get bank loans.
And so a whole bunch of different firms spring up in that sector with support and they
start competing very intensely. So it's a mix of state directed and intensely competitive.
I want to draw something out in the description. I thought was great of affected by family relationships guys
No, you it doesn't work that way anymore. You can't just like you're not region-locked in China any longer, okay?
I'm talking about one of the most like back in the day when the when the country was developing
It was far more restrictive
The the Hukou system itself now exists as as the way I explained it to you like you can go you can go to a
different province. You can work in a different province. Many people do. A lot of people do actually
in China. Ironically enough, because of the youth unemployment crisis, many youths are actually going
back to the rural countryside, which is developing at a much more rapid pace now and trying to
to work factory jobs more than ever before.
Another aspect of Hukou is land rights for rural Chinese land reform gave land to rural
farmers and the right to live in big cities without everyone piling in on one city, yes.
Because, remember, through the growth period, post-revolution, through the growth period
in China, even with the Dengue reforms, before Dengue reforms, or certainly after Dengue reforms
as well, there is rapid industrialization taking place. There's rapid urbanization taking place,
but it's not even. They're always trying to get to even development, but of course it's
not going to be even development because you have the countryside that's massive,
right? And they're obviously always going to be, they're obviously always going to
fall behind the major cities. So then in an effort to make sure that the rural side, the
country side is also industrializing or the rural side is also developing, they have to
keep people there. You get social insurance when you work now. The Hukou system isn't
entirely defunct, but it's mostly been decoupled from social insurance. Yeah.
How their economy is different. China has gotten a lot richer and less of that
wealth than you might have thought has gone into things like a universal
healthcare system, a social insurance system for the elderly. America got
richer. We built Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, earned income
tax credit, child tax credit. China's gotten richer because it has not allowed a lot of that,
because also you have such power over the financial system. It has just been able to move much more
of that money into subsidized. I love hearing liberals react in awe to the power of a centrally
planned economy. Okay? Because like, look, every economy on the planet is a mixed, every
economy on the planet is a mixed economy. Okay? There is some capitalist elements in
everyone and then there's socialist elements in every single one. Okay? Obviously, social
democracy is still a capitalist formation because capital owners still get to make decisions
decoupled from the rest of society and sometimes actually capital owners make decisions that
are antithetical to the needs or antagonistic to the needs of the working class in their
countries that don't have any sort of like national ambition.
Okay?
I guess the truest sense of capitalism would be something as decentralized as Somalia
or maybe i guess like the current formation in argentina but even then it
doesn't
uh... it doesn't make a whole lot of sense
but they're obviously uh... higher degrees of socialization in nordic
countries as opposed to united states america but there's still some level
of socialization
the problem is
the problem is
with china
we treat it like
uh... they're cheating
why are they cheating
well because
They have subsidies on steroids.
They deploy state subsidies to make their production
more competitive, to artificially reduce costs,
to make sure that they have plentiful, cheap alternatives,
much more cost-effective alternatives
to whatever Europe is manufacturing.
The other problem with China is that
They're cost-effective alternatives are now also better, technologically better than our
domestic manufacturing.
At least back in the day, when Chinese commodities were talked about, we were like, oh, it's
cheap, it's just fucking shitty.
Like for the, I remember, look, I was born in 1991, I'm old, I'm 35, but I remember
like leading into the 2000s, the meta, the idea, the trend was that, you know, Chinese
goods are shitty. They're nowhere near as good as stuff made in Europe. Right? A lot
of Zoomers do not understand that that was the outlook. Okay? That was the outlook.
Nowadays people don't say that no more. And it's ironic because, well, you know, still
some people believe that and it's wrong. What matters not is how people approach the subject.
What matters is what the reality is. And if you look at business owners, for example,
now American titans of industry will look to Chinese commodities and Chinese cars
like EV, for example, and they look at it in admiration. They say like, if these
cars were to come into the American market, they would destroy us. We'd never be able
to sell another car again that was the that was Farley what's his name the the
CEO of Ford who went to China and his daily driver is a Chinese car who
should have came back to America before it's CEO and said if Chinese vehicles were
to enter the American market we would never be able to sell another fucking
car ever again
Back in the day, they also used to say, oh, China is stealing RIP.
He briefly mentioned this as well.
That was a handshake agreement.
It's not like American capital owners were oblivious to the fact that the Chinese manufacturers
We're also taking our IP our patents and and recreating them
Recreating like cheaper alternatives to it we know and we still know to this day. It's not like they're fucking delusional that was
that was absolutely a
a
handshake agreement
from American capital
You get to
Manufacture our goods we get to displace our labor we get to
You know we get to manufacture our goods in your factories and you get to you know take the patents and
Make the exact same cheap alternative and and slap a Chinese sticker on it
Nowadays
Nowadays that's not even happening nowadays the the Chinese innovation has actually
has actually gained a stronger foothold where Americans are purchasing Chinese goods to try
to retool their vehicles with the Chinese bells and whistles. We're stealing from them.
Not that it matters because we will never have a competitive edge in manufacturing because
we've destroyed our productive capabilities.
And therefore in order to rebuild
domestic manufacturing, we would have to spend decades.
This is decades of training, decades of proficiency.
Chinese manufacturing is superior
to the American manufacturing as Tim Apple,
Tim Cook openly admits,
because they have decades of experience as well.
high-position manufacturing is not easy to recreate.
I think production innovation
in like new economic areas wants to dominate.
You know, the basic retirement benefit
that anyone in China gets,
no matter what your residency status
is like tens of dollars a month.
It's really, really trivial.
The health insurance system, you know, people aren't confident and they walk into the hospital
that that cost will be covered and frequently there's a lot of upfront payments.
Some people also say the one child policy in an incredibly competitive marriage market
has made it a requirement for young men to save if they want to get married.
All this has produced an economy that just saves an incredible share of its national
income.
percent of GDP uniquely high. And that means the state financial sector is just flush with money.
So part of it is that China has the capacity direct investment through the state.
Part of it is just it can finance out of its own. This is not entirely true as well.
As far as the only aspect that this is true is the saving side.
He's not wrong about that. China is a saving nation. America, on the other hand, is a nation in debt.
China is the exact opposite. And the only other thing that I would point to that he's not entirely
correct on, but he's not entirely wrong on, is the health care system. Because health care is
an area that needs a lot of improvement in China. This is true. So it's still state run,
but it is one aspect of, it is one area where they have to improve dramatically, and they
are improving.
savings, levels of investment that no other country has matched.
So this, I think this is all true through China shock 1.0.
The view is maybe more of it would change as it went on, but it didn't.
So what is China shock 2.0?
When do you date it?
How do you describe it?
So I date the start of China shock 2.0 to the collapse of China's property
market in 2021.
Now, we all know there's an awful lot going on in 2020, the pandemic.
She gets concerned that there's too much investment in property, probably rightly so, that there
were empty buildings piling up.
He introduces a policy, three red lines, which sort of restricts finance for the property
sector, and it succeeds too well.
And the property market basically tanks.
And then in order to offset the economic impact of this fall, she more or less gives the banking
system guidance to lend, to finance a new wave of manufacturing investment, and particularly
manufacturing in more cutting edge sectors.
So electric vehicles being the leading example.
But in general, it's investment in any sector where China has import dependence.
And for Xi, that's a vulnerability.
And so he really directs the state's financial sector and the party to throw money into building
out sectors where China has an import dependence.
The effect is China moves back to growing on the back of that exports.
China's domestic economy is growing three, four percent.
But you're getting one and a half to two percentage points of growth from that exports.
That's a lot of statistics.
What it basically means is China is exporting eight ton of cars.
China is supplying the entire world with batteries.
China is now the leading exporter of tunnel boring machines.
You name the category of machinery, China's exports are growing.
It's no longer just consumer electronics.
So China starts getting a growth, big part of its growth, from an expanding trade surplus.
Imports stop growing.
This is, you know, I think one of the key factors around the second China shock.
Normally you would say imports would grow with domestic demand.
Chinese import.
The reality of the matter is, the reason why we say China is cheating is because
they are capable of
do to centrally planned uh... central control and centrally planned economy
do their central plan economy
they're able to do
well i like to call like nuclear levels of
of subsidies
and they also have complete control over how those subsidies are utilized
as opposed to the united states of america
when we offer subsidies uh... some of that goes to uh... price control
It's a crude way to look at it, but much of that still goes back to executive salaries and
Sure and in crew improving shareholder value
That's it so we look at it and we go that's fucking cheating you're cheating
It's not they're not cheating we're just not competing with them appropriately
And then we're calling it cheating
What is this
Dog did you just send me
Wait, this is from August 27th
2025 this is a Taylor Lorenz article about chorus
from a
a year ago, like exactly a year ago, that that was very controversial at the time. That's so funny
that you're posting that right now saying David Pakman caught as hilarious.
Of course, basically aren't growing. And in case kind of selling ever more to the world, and then
Chinese are not buying more from it. And ultimately, ultimately, look, look, they are
a version of this is what Amazon does, right? Like at a, at a more localized scale at the
the domestic scale, this is kind of what Amazon does, right? It's called predatory pricing,
right? Amazon, due to its tremendous industrial capabilities, due to the fact that it owns
the marketplace and can create much more cost-effective forms of the same exact things
that are selling well on its own. Marketplace, they can artificially cut prices, right?
and outcompete other smaller businesses that are relying on their marketplace, okay?
So basically, China is doing that on an international scale.
From the perspective of, what the fuck is this?
Dude, what are you sending me, man?
China is capable of creating unbelievably low-cost alternatives with virtually every
kind of good, and therefore, China has been able to gain a competitive edge and become
the global manufacturing hub and he who controls the entire globe's manufacturing controls
the fate of the entire planet.
This is what he's talking about when he says that this is the second China shock and it's
terrifying.
Exactly.
And Chinese exports, particularly in the years right after the pandemic, after the currency
is depreciated, start growing at two times or three times the pace of world trade.
So China's imports of autos used to be about a million cars a year.
That's now down.
It's now under half a million cars a year.
And over this same period, China's exports of cars have gone from little under a million
to now 10 million in the space of five years.
Just a stunning shift in a range of industrial sectors and heavily industrial sectors that
compete with Japan and compete with Europe.
And so you sort of see bad economic performance in the manufacturing heart of Europe in
particular, a little less so in the US.
I think this point about the Europe versus US is really interesting. In one of the pieces
you wrote about this, you wrote, the US share of global output has been remarkably constant
over the last 40 years. China's rise has come at the expense of the other G7 countries.
Can you talk about what that looks like? I mean, I know you've, let's use maybe Germany
as an example. I love watching liberals talk about this without identifying what the problem is.
By the way, it is my favorite type of conversation is my favorite type of back-and-forth
Because at the end of the day you just go back to it while they're cheating
Because their systems design is better than ours, but they will never admit that because then they would have to take the L on capitalism
Because that's what it comes down to
Like they can say oh, it's because these you know initially these were low-cost labor sites because
Because the Chinese labor force was much poorer overall, the Chinese conditions were much worse overall.
Oh, they did this at gunpoint.
They put nets outside of the Foxconn factories, whatever the fuck you want to call it, right?
Like, oh, they were forcing people to do this.
You know, idle hands go starving.
But at the end of the day, the reason why China was able to develop is because of
how they redistributed, how they redistributed the foreign capital that was flowing into the country.
And now they've developed to a degree where they are able to compete with the rest of the world.
They're able to move their weight around.
I will say it's, you know, not lost on me that virtually all of the liberals used to say China's
gonna fucking fail next year. China's collapses imminent. All those liberals are now making,
you know, China is actually dominating us style videos.
Germany didn't move as heavily into, you know, kind of software platforms. They
retained a more traditional manufacturing sector and focused on exports, including
China. So, you know, Germany after the global financial crisis is exporting
close to 3% of its GDP to China. That reflects the fact that Germany remained
a very manufacturing centric economy, the tunnel boring machines, the high end sedans, a lot
of fancy SUVs, also aircraft, the 320s made in Hamburg.
All these industrial sectors tended to be industrial sectors which had a lot of overlap
with China. And then you throw in the fact that the EV industry just took off in China.
A lot of government support. And the German companies, they were made their own efforts
to make EVs in Europe, but those never took off globally.
Mike, the reason why I don't think it's an apt comparison with predatory pricing that Amazon
does, with respect to China competing with other countries around the planet, is because
Amazon is destroying mom-and-pop shops that have to rely on the Amazon marketplace.
America is also a equivalent competitor to Amazon at that point.
That's why the analogy doesn't fully work.
You can say, oh, China is actually engaging in predatory pricing.
artificially lowering their costs. We can't compete. They're destroying us. But we
also have, objectively, throughout this period of Chinese development, have had
far more power than China. Far more power than China. And still, to a certain
degree, have far more power than China. We just fucking destroyed ourselves. We
destroyed our industrial base at the behest of capital. International capital,
international parasitic capital that has no investment in national boundaries or its own people,
its own neighbors, and the well-being of its labor force doesn't care. It's just for profit.
Yeah, the United States is not a mom-and-pop shop, and China is the Amazon. It's not a great
comparison for that reason. The United States has its own competitive Amazon-style platform,
And China is also another Amazon style platform is just destroying the the major competitor
Hype train is here ladies and gentlemen at level 10 hype train. We carry the motherfucking flame
I haven't carried it in a couple days. We're at level four hype train right now
In the way that china's EV industry has nor are they cost competitive
So what you see is german exports to china have fallen by about a percentage point of german gdp
And what was a strength? Germany benefited from selling to China right after the global financial crisis became a weakness.
I want to focus in on another dimension of this. It's kind of inside the story you're telling, which is...
So China Shock 1, it's lower on the value chain of manufacturer goods.
you know, clothes and consumer calculators and all these things that the story that was told was
We don't want these industries in the long run
what happens in
The challenge up to is that China is starting to dominate industries on the technological frontier. I mean you mentioned
Electric vehicles you mentioned batteries, right? You could talk about solar panels
we could talk about AI, where they're basically neck and neck with us, how did they go from
kind of low to mid-level manufacturing to the absolute frontier in batteries, solar, etc.
That quickly.
There was certainly something in the air in China around manufacturing.
The critical mass was built up and the foundations were laid.
And I think it's a complicated story.
So if you think about...
Honestly, this might be it for me.
I'm tired of waiting around for a song.
Like I don't have anything better to do.
Clearly, he doesn't respect our time.
Why should we respect his?
This is a mutual relationship as far as I'm concerned, but it's beginning to seem
very one-sided.
I think this is where I unfollow in us of 420 months, by the way.
Thanks everyone, but I can't take it anymore.
Oh god, we haven't seen copy-pasta in the chat in a minute. You know what I mean?
Paralyzed pendant plug, thank you for the 25 get the says level six hype train ladies and gentlemen level 10
We will carry the freaking flame
Electric vehicles being the like one of the famous
Sector's what do you need to make an electric? Well, you actually need to be able to make a car
It is you know a smartphone mix with a car. So how does China learn how to make cars of good cars?
Well, a lot of foreign companies come in and Ford and GM and VW all had to partner with generally Chinese state companies
To produce in China. That was just the rule and they didn't
Have a really much of a choice because in China had a 25%
Honored. Oh, I'm sorry. They didn't have much of a choice. You say well, there was one choice
Which was to keep manufacturing at home
But no our capital owners wanted to our capital owners wanted to do everything in their power
To depress wages. They wanted the cheap labor alternative that China offered
So they moved their fucking manufacturing there
Sorry, but that's exactly what happened. That's exactly what took place if you want to get mad at someone get mad at capitalism
Get mad at the capital owners who made this decision
Why are we acting like?
Capital owners are you know these factories went to China at gunpoint like they were killing you if you don't go and move your
Factory to the China and partner up with the government
No, it was it was part hubris and
part greed
Okay, it was the greed of a low-cost labor alternative
And it was the hubris because they wanted to maximize profits again, like I said labor most malleable element of
production
And it was part hubris the hubris that these Chinese folk would never be able to make
Competitive products
Hubris also known as racism, right. Oh
Oh, they're Chinese they could never comprehend our brilliant Western minds. They would never for years and years
For years and years they said
Chinese products that they're making our dog shit. They're nowhere near as good as the superior Western quality products
Well, some of us don't think it was very hubris we literally lost our jobs dog
at what point do you think I'm making a sympathetic plea for the Warren Buffets of the world here?
Okay, yes, I'm on your side on this story.
Like, yes, that's what I'm describing.
Unless you are a factory owner or a business owner, I'm not criticizing you.
You're the worker. You lost your job. Industry moved away from your hometown.
Here I'll give you one example. Gary Indiana. Gary Indiana is a high black
density town. Used to be a place where industry thrived. Gary Indiana, factories
closed down. Gary Indiana is in a dire situation. Gary Indiana for the last 10
days has not had any electricity. Okay. United States of America. We're talking
about the United States of America. There for the last 10 days in Gary
Indiana there has not been any electricity. Think about that. No
power was so ever. It's fucking insane. We don't even talk about it in the news.
That's what happened. Because the bosses wanted to ship manufacturing
overseas because it was much more cost-effective for them.
They could justify sky high profits and for years and years consumers would in exchange
for that would get cheaper consumer goods.
And yes, Gary, Indiana, 85% black, which is why it's not being covered at all right
now.
to be a steel town. Home to US Steel's Gary Works, the largest steel mill complex in North
America. That's Gary Indiana. Now, it's it's devoid of power for 10 days, and it barely
makes a fucking blip on anybody's radar. Part of that is because it's in experiencing
abject poverty part of that is because it's very black
it's unfathomable this is the wealthiest nation on the planet that's why i say
third-world country with the gucci belt
big example in nineteen seventy nine gm domestically employed about six hundred
twenty thousand jobs
now gm employs about a hundred and fifty thousand employees worldwide
very long time. So in order to, you know, if VW is on the other side of the tariff with a JV partner,
you're talking about general outsourcing, but he's talking about how Chinese auto manufacturing,
which he mentioned, started with tariffs on imports in China that pushed those auto companies to
manufacture. They're a good example of targeted tariffs. They're going to have a big cost
advantage. So GM had to also jump the tariff. Toyota had to jump the tariff. Everybody
does the JVs to inventors. And then you want your parts suppliers to come and produce
high quality parts. So they come to China. Well, guess what? They probably, once they
learn how to make parts in China, they are making parts at a much lower cost, relatively
cheap. And you're starting to use them.
Oh, never mind. I'm trying to dive at level seven.
And China and then local competitors spring up. So China ends up having world-class
automotive parts production well before its company suddenly master EVs.
At a certain point in China was sort of, they liked the results of the joint venture, but
they didn't completely like the fact that for a while most of the Chinese market was
being met by auto markets being met by joint venture output, the indigenous Chinese owned
companies were not all that competitive.
There was a sense that the auto manufacturers who had a JV were fat and lazy because they
were too happy producing through their JVs.
So there was a sense that, okay, well, this sector was so little too foreign dominated.
And then there was a correct sense that, well, we should try to take advantage of
the transition to EVs.
So China makes it a priority.
When China makes something a priority, credit is available to local firms that want
enter the EV market. The state banking system gets mobilized, local governments start throwing money
at it, get a lot of small companies springing up. China supports the development of an indigenous
local battery industry. Then your Tesla's market entry is also viewed as significant when Tesla
enters. So all I'm getting from this is that China is an opt to American labor on the same
level if not greater than capital wait what no what do you mean there would be
there would be no manufacturing of of you know competitive like Chinese labor is
only outsourced like Chinese labor is only an op because our capital owners
brought the fucking labor there or brought the manufacturing there.
crazy. It's not their fault that they actually were able to develop with all the foreign capital
coming in. They were experiencing abject poverty. They had extreme poverty. Like, yeah, they
should have just kept that. They should have just been relegated to the peasant class.
They should have never have been able to develop.
They should have never been a competitive labor force capable of precise manufacturing.
Bucked up that they did is the argument at that point.
What matters now is how do we recreate our industrial base?
The Chinese the Chinese working class are not our enemies chatter
China as a state is not even our enemy
If you want to understand who's responsible for the situation look to look no further than those who own capital
Yeah, why would the why would the Chinese state guarantee us labor welfare
Why would the Chinese state think about anything other than the the
Other than improving the material conditions of their citizens really get mad at someone get mad at our state
If you're gonna get mad as I won't get mad at our capital owners get mad at capitalism
That's why I always jokingly say like if you want to beat China, that's like your goal that you kind of have to be China
That's what I'm saying. Yes, American capital is collapsing. One channel will remain. I don't see a resolution for American labor. That's what I'm saying is that we can't, we can't recreate our industrial base. It's all downhill for Americans, no matter what. That's not true.
I'll give you an example. For the last decade, we have been begging America to create a domestic manufacturing hub for solar panels.
This was one of the the major demands from the Green New Deal and our fucking
animal
reactionary corporate media and our right-wing Republican Party and many of the right-wing centrist Democrats
Aggressively postured against it. We had a fucking decade. We had all the wealth on the planet
We could have just fucking designed these goddamn factories
We could have made cheap solar panels
But we didn't do that. We talked about how England blew a 13 colony lead. We blew complete
global control. We didn't do it because solar is obviously antagonistic to the
needs of the fossil fuel industry. So now we're heading down climate disaster
and also simultaneously have no foothold in the next generation of energy around the globe
because at the end of the day solar panels and renewable energy in general
reduces reliance on fossil fuels.
Our entire economy is also anchored around the petrodollar and we had no investment
whatsoever in diversifying our over reliance on fossil fuel.
So now when Iran shuts off the straight of hormones, we have to dump into our strategic petroleum reserves and
Our our oil and gas industry is booming right now. Oh my god their profits are doing so well
But are you doing well?
No
We didn't build a robust manufacturing hub here for
solar panels, those could have been millions of new jobs, millions of forever jobs.
So it's not like we, it's not like we don't have the opportunity or we didn't have the
opportunity.
There's always a, there's always a way to turn this around.
just that unfortunately, let's be real, we're too fucking stupid. Like right now as it stands,
and I have hope that we can change the American trajectory, but we are too reactionary and
too fucking stupid to change it at the moment. Because people who see the writing on the
wall, who are smart enough to recognize what changes are taking place around the globe
are constantly warning
about the imminent crisis
but unfortunately the majority
is chock full of reactionary propaganda
and our our sophisticated corporate media apparatus
designs propaganda in a way to to make those smart people intelligent people
thoughtful people look crazy look silly
the green new deal is the best example of this like the the
The fear mongering around the Green New Deal is the best example of this.
We have a crisis in stupidity.
Not required to do a JV, but in order to qualify for Shanghai government,
local support has to meet a lot of local content requirements.
So a supply chain that serves Tesla can also serve others.
And when China sets up their consumer subsidies in order to qualify for
for that subsidy. The car initially had to be made in China. The battery had to be made in China.
That supported not just the Chinese battery industry, but the Chinese-owned EV industry.
And then you get the EVs kind of just taking off. And so all of a sudden you just get an
an explosion, which has been built on a foundation from the migration of Western parts makers,
copying, emulation, and then an awful lot of industrial policy.
So something people may have heard is this argument that China is overcapacity,
that that overcapacity is a crisis, is a sort of related maybe to trade imbalances.
I don't think that makes a lot of intuitive sense. Like why is that a problem if they
produce more cars than they buy. So how would you describe what the overcapacity issue is?
To me, the most coherent way of defining the concern about Chinese overcapacity
is a set of sectors where China produces more than a domestic market can absorb,
And where globally, China's adding capacity in a sector that in aggregate already has more capacity than there is global demand.
So in batteries, for example, China's ability to make batteries is a multiple of current global demand.
So there's just no scope for anyone else to enter the market.
I think the concern in a sector like autos, where there is overcapacity globally, there
are more auto factories in Europe and in the US with capacity than there is demand.
Many factories are operating at low levels of capacity or being underused.
And there is overcapacity in China.
A lot of Chinese factories are not being fully used.
China is adding to its capacity.
So China has the ability to make 55 million cars,
which is well over a half,
close to two thirds of world demand.
And that is growing.
And so China's expansion necessarily means
the exit of capacity elsewhere
when there's already spare capacity.
Now you can say that's just the operation of a market.
New entrance, gonna displace old capacity.
But it does feel different when a closed market suddenly is adding capacity to an industrial
sector where in aggregate there isn't plenty of capacity and there are squeezing margins,
squeezing production out of the rest of the world.
One thing I've heard people ask is, how is this different than America?
America rises as a manufacturing juggernaut from being a much more modest economy.
the country has founded. It does, over time, displace great companies from other countries.
It does lead to competition that is harder for other countries. But I do think economically,
America's rise is not in every respect. I mean, that is what happened. That is literally what
happened, accelerated by World War II as well, especially because America, due to its distance
from the conflict was able to recover far better than the rest of the world did, far better than
the rest of the competitive Western industries did. But yeah, that is a big part of it. That's a big
part of why America was such a dominant force. He who controls manufacturing controls the world.
I just don't understand how you look at key periods of time like I like the point of America's war economy or and it's like post-World War two war economy as
The closest America's ever gotten to like full-blown Chinese style central plan central planning
That's what it was during the war and even after that. There was still a the residual impact of the
of the central economy, the centralized economic planning.
And that's part of the reason why we fucking dominated.
What is median strategies, fake pulses with the fuck?
What do you want?
Why do you keep spamming?
I don't know what you're talking about.
I don't care.
Probably considered to have been win-win in a lot of ways.
So what is different about the rise of America as a manufacturer, like the rise of Detroit,
the rise of all these dimensions from what China is doing?
So our story is much more one of industrial investment for our own rapidly growing internal
market, and we only really become a big exporter after World War II when the world's
on its back, and that doesn't last that long.
as industrial rise is much more tied to exporting, and it's a much bigger exporter than we ever
were.
Yeah, I know.
I know.
It's the one that had the Hong-Pole.
It's the one that had the Karen Bass-Pole.
I know.
For that brief period after World War II.
So one argument here is simply China's winning, their out-competing the world in
a pretty fair...
Interesting.
Interesting.
gotta be tough to say as a liberal. I don't know how much as we're leaned into the China
is going to implode any day now type narratives. I don't know if he did that himself, but many
people on the liberal side for years said over and over again, China's economy is about
the implode. China's economy is about the implode China's economy. Any day now on the
on the verge of demise, on the verge of demise, on the verge of demise.
Remember?
What did we say?
That's not the case.
What did they say when we said that's not the case?
Oh, you just love eating China's dick.
Oh, you're a communist.
You love Mao Zedong.
You're wrong.
And you will see filthy commie.
Enjoy your tofu-dreg housing in ghost cities.
And, and sewer lard, based food substitutes. Enjoy it.
And square here in the world doesn't like it. It needs to build better cars, build cheaper solar panels, create stronger supply chains.
all this talk of China shocks and a China problem, not sewer, lard, gutter oil, whatever.
It's just kind of a way to whine and keep China down. And that there's no problem here, like it
would be great to have cheap Chinese electric vehicles. It's good for the world. And the
climate transition to have cheap Chinese solar panels. How do you take that argument?
Look, if your only goal is maximizing benefits to consumers in the short run, you should
certainly import Chinese EVs, Chinese solar.
Why not?
Open economics, say buy from whoever is cheaper, and then the competition will raise everyone
else up. I think that misses a few things. One, it misses the shock that happens to our
economies if traditional, even like traditional but still kind of cutting-edge sectors disappear.
China could supply out of capacity that it has already built the entire European
auto market all of it 10 million cars no problem that's just giant compared to
the global market if an industry suddenly goes away you have all the
China shock 1.0 type effects communities that grew up around building
cars will just kind of disappear. Now, in the China shock 2.0, you're not going to be moving
to an export sector because there are no one's exporting to China. So you're going to move to
necessarily a services sector. So you're going to become less focused on producing traded goods.
Now you might say, I mean, that already happened. So he's just basically saying America's going to
be even more service sector oriented. Who cares? On the other hand, in Europe,
an awful lot of research and development, an awful lot of innovation actually has emerged
out of their automotive sector. So it's not clear these people are going to jump to a more
innovative sector. They may jump to less innovative, less well-paid sectors. And in the interim,
your economy is going to suffer. And then I think there is a sense that people have discovered
that supply chain dependence can be weaponized. China dominates magnets, rarers. If you want
those magnets, you want those rarers, you better not tire of China. You better not,
you better see nice things about China. You better not do what Japan did and say you're
going to come to Taiwan's defense if something were to happen. You kind of need to respect China.
It's so funny that they're coming to terms with the fact that China is a superpower.
Like this conversation is basically the bargaining stage of liberals recognizing China's place around
the globe as a superpower that is not only competitive with the United States but actually
out competing the United States and perhaps maybe even the hegemon, the future hegemon.
Like, because everything that they're talking about with respect to like Chinese,
With respect to Chinese soft power with respect to like you know what you have to do because China has so much power now
It's like yeah, this is what the United States did for the last 100 years, okay?
Not a hundred but almost a hundred years for the last century or so almost a century. This is what the United States did I
Mean even down to like Afghanistan Iraq you think if another country were to behave that way that the rest of the world wouldn't fucking react
Look at Russia. Russia is doing America's shit in Ukraine. Look at the reaction from the rest of the globe to Vladimir Putin.
Look at the reaction from the rest of the world to Russia itself.
If Russia didn't have China in its corner right now, and if it wasn't a fucking major energy provider itself, it would be destroyed.
So why is it that America gets to do that kind of stuff, but Russia can't?
Well, because America was the hegemon for the longest time.
And America still has tremendous power at its disposal.
The Swift system, the Petrodollar, these are things that are withering away partially due
to this administration's acceleration, this administration's incompetence.
But the reality of the matter is, yes, China is a major power and therefore we have to
treat it as a major power.
We can't just say, no, we get to do whatever we want and you can't do anything about it.
I would go so far as to say that we are very fortunate that they are not doing to us what
we've done to the rest of the world 100 percent.
Okay?
Can you imagine if China moved like America does like at most we complain because China
China has built like artificial islands, right?
Oh, they take over coral reefs and they build artificial islands and they put military bases
on it.
Okay, that's in their backyard.
We do that in their backyard.
Okay?
Like people complain about the 9-line and how much China is just like dominating the
South China Sea.
Meanwhile, they have their own separate security cooperative agreements with one exception,
obviously, Taiwan and also the Philippines, but that's literally their backyard.
At the end of the day, we do that to their backyard.
Why the fuck won't the Philippines do a separate security cooperative agreement with China?
You think it's in their best interest?
No, of course not.
It's because we won't let them.
So the point I'm trying to make is we should be thanking God every day that China, at least
in this stage, this might change.
I don't think they will, but we should be thanking God every day that they don't behave
in the way that we do.
Can you imagine doing joint military, Chinese Navy doing joint military exercises in Hawaii
with Russia, okay?
with Mexico. Chinese Navy doing joint military exercise with the Canadian Navy or the Mexican
Navy off the coast of California. That's what we do to them. Chinese naval exercise with
the Cuban Navy off the coast of Miami, Florida. You know, what would we do? We'd lose our
our fucking minds.
Now if you want access to their supply chain,
that's kind of the argument that they are making.
That kind of dependence scares people.
Like imagine China,
greatly investing into a free Hawaii
from a colonialism campaign.
after years and years like boosting, you know, Polynesian Samoan culture initiatives, like
setting up NGOs, setting up NGOs in Hawaii for Polynesian culture, Samoan culture, and talking
about restoring the Hawaiian kingdom, and then utilizing the global network of NGOs to say,
you know, I was really fucked up how America has so many colonies, including Hawaii technically,
I'm not even talking about Guam. Before we get to Hawaii, there's Guam. There's obviously military base all around the world, Puerto Rico, you know, Radio Free Polynesia, Radio Free Puerto Rico, NGOs, NGOs that they design, liberation movements or separatist movements that they arm, right?
Like there's so much that that China could be doing that they don't do
Like a like a free Tibet well for Puerto Rico, you know what I mean free Tibet, but Hawaii
Fuck it free Tibet for Mexico for for Texas
As an even more app comparison free free
Texas, Texas is Mexican, California is Mexican.
I mean I wouldn't hate the California one honestly.
I would love to exist under the complete control of my glorious queen, Laodia Shime Bomb, but...
Finally, I would just say, look, if you want to emulate China, if you admire China, you want to emulate it.
You like the way China's electric vehicle industry has developed. It did not develop.
Just doesn't Chinese poverty started look a little worse than the US when you use US poverty standards even after accounting for Chinese of station subsidization
Yes, China is still objectively a much poorer nation in the United States of America. This is true
But you have to look at their living circumstances. There's like still very poor areas
Holy shit I
Am EU you go Paul they leaked it
I thought they were going to I thought that they were going to reveal make this poll revelation on my stream
But I guess they leaked it already
This was gonna happen next week, but I guess they released it ahead of time. I will be talking to someone from IMU
Percentage who say Israel's committee get genocide against Palestinians Michigan 80% Nevada 78% New Hampshire
78% New Mexico 76% Virginia 72% South Carolina 57%
By throwing the
Doors open it did not develop without industrial policy
China's EV industry developed behind some of the highest tariffs in the world at the time, 25%.
Huge local preference. You know, Chinese made battery ideally from a Chinese company.
Chinese made car could be a Tesla, but it's going to be Tesla made in China with 90% Chinese content.
And then an awful lot of local government support. There are stories of entire
factories being built not by the company but by the local government to the
specifications of the company. So there's a story of protection and industrial
policy that leads to the creation of this sector. You throw your doors open to
China, you're going to get the cheap cars, but you're not going to get the EV
industry and I think many countries are are reluctant to just seed more
industrial ground to China. So for a long time the critique that you heard in American trade debate
most often of China is that they were a currency manipulator. Then you stopped hearing that as
much. I think your view is that that has actually become a bigger part of the story again.
So let's do this in two parts. What is currency manipulation? Why does it matter?
And then what has been the sort of roller coaster or where are we on the roller coaster of Chinese currency manipulation?
Sometimes currency manipulation is just like a currency whose value we don't like
Which is I think how the president sometimes uses used to use it he hasn't been talking as much about it
but the the
More accurate way of defining it would be a country that has an undervalued currency
You can quantify that and so you look for
Genium question is a fellow train lover. How do you deal with the contradiction when China wants to export cheap cars?
However, we'll leave tomorrow car center infrastructure because it's so cheap. What are you talking about?
China literally has high speed rail
China in many respects is very similar to America
Except much better in terms of its public transport alternatives
Yeah, they got trains too, buddy. They could export cheap train cars as well or fuck it. We could make them here. I
Know we forgot about this, you know, it's like oh, we can't go back to the moon
We the scientists forgot how to get there, you know, we lost the ancient recipes
But like we kind of didn't lose the ancient recipes. We could just make this shit here, you know, I
Wish I
Or a surplus that's bigger than you would expect given the underlying characteristics of the economy.
Factor one. And factor two is government or quasi-government intervention in the foreign currency market.
So it's not just the outcome of differences in monetary policy.
There's a government with its finger on the FX market buying currency to hold the currency down.
China met both of those definitions unambiguously from 2003 to 2012.
There was a political decision not to call them a manipulator.
Now during the latter part of their period, they're letting their currency appreciate
so they're kind of correcting the undervaluation, which is part of the reason why they weren't
named.
China is now back through its state banks buying a lot of foreign currency in the
market, 50 billion a month, 600 billion a year. So there's a much clearer case that China is
manipulating now than there was in the past. Trump hasn't taken interest in this. The Europeans
though have. And so I think the what you're seeing is that this become shifting from being
an American debate to being a global debate. When we were preparing for this conversation,
something I found myself thinking about a lot was the question of whether or not it
matters if the competition is fair. Let's say for a long time, the narrative that at
least we were comfortable with in this was a very procedural narrative about China betraying
the principles of free trade. They are a currency manipulator who is keeping their
currency artificially cheap in order to make their exports cheaper, or they're doing
all these industrial subsidies, and are you really supposed to do those under the
World Trade Organization. And it's a very sort of liberals who believe in the system way of
thinking about the problem that the problem is China's cheating. And I'm not saying cheating can't
be a problem. But there's clearly quite a few places now where China is just winning or they've
got into a place where they can win. And so I guess my question is, is the problem that
some of China's advantages are unfair, right? They're back to currency manipulation,
that currency seems artificially cheap, or is just the problem that from a national interest
perspective, from an interdependence and weaponization perspective, that Germany, Europe, the United States,
it would be a mistake to just allow their industries to get wiped out. That the question
here is not an abstract commitment to free trade. It is what creates a kind of healthy
the national ecosystem.
Look, I increasingly lean towards the, look, we just want these kinds of industries.
We don't want full-on dependence.
We don't have to rely on arguments about procedural violation of rules, which feel
a bit dated in a world where we ourselves are clearly not following the most basic
of the rules. And the rules have a lot of complexity. You're allowed to subsidize under
the rules. You're not supposed to subsidize if it's to substitute for imports. Well, if
you subsidize a sector and everything in that sector previously was imported, are you
import substituting or just subsidizing that sector? Is a government-guided fund
that puts money into private equity funds and venture funds to invest in chip manufacturing?
Is that a subsidy?
Yes and no.
It may not be a subsidy under the rules.
So the rules themselves are contested
and not uniformly followed.
And to some degree, in certain sectors,
I think we care much more about outcomes
than about the rules.
That's obvious in sectors of national security importance.
So a lot of the rarest famous sector
have very, very direct and important military applications, we should probably not, even
if China played completely fairly, one-on-one to be 100% dependent on China for the supplies
of those key materials.
And then you kind of have to work further from that.
Where does the line come about what do you care about, where do you just care about
the outcome. And where are you going to rely more on arguments around procedural fairness?
And then I think on the flip side, China itself clearly cared about the outcome, not the procedural
fairness.
What would you say the Trump administration across its two terms, and I realize have
been different in important ways, has gotten right about China? I mean, if Trump has
been disruptive on how America has thought about anything that has been China, and what
you think they've gotten wrong in their either China orientation or their China policy.
There is something a little strange about Trump's first term, because the first term
2017-2018, it's like the US political system reacted to the China shock, five to ten years
after that first China shock happened. So the timing was maybe strange, but a lot of the
policy direction I would agree was more or less right. I think it was right to broadly
say that the WTO rules, which were thought to be constraining China, had become a constraint
on ourselves. China was really good at finding ways of achieving outcomes by living on the
edge of the rules. I think the targeted first wave of tariffs were actually sort of in sectors
where it was reasonable, generally speaking, to have tariffs. And you're talking here
in the first term. Yes. So like in the first term, the tariffs were basically on China.
And the second term, the tariffs are basically on everyone.
And I am much more comfortable with putting tariffs on China, particularly now because
you know, China's a con...
Trade protectionism only works if you have trade to protect.
I am not a free marketeer.
I never have been and I never will be.
Okay?
But if you were to actually do trade protectionism, you have to ensure that you have some kind
of trade to protect.
This is why as much as I would love low cost and beautifully designed Chinese electric
vehicles, I understand why America engages in broad tariffs against such things to stop
temperamentary in the American market so that we have some semblance of an automobile industry.
The problem is, free market is fucking bullshit. It's not real, right? Obviously, America's never
abided by that standard. There's no such thing as fairness in capitalism. It doesn't work that way.
But what's frustrating about this
Is we don't even fucking have any industry man. We don't have any industry
We and we cannot because it's a it's at this stage
Without a command economy without central planning we will never be able to keep up with China
It will forever remain the the global manufacturing hub of the planet and it will only grow in its power
and it will do whatever the fuck it wants to as we slowly but surely continue
experiencing more Gary Indiana style situations all around the country.
And now China's already moved into the realm of entertainment as well. They're
gonna start dominating us there too. There's just no way to solve this
problem without solving capitalism without fixing capitalism as long as
capitalism remains as long as capital is the domineering force we will never be
able to compete against China we will never be able to do anything is that
simple second thought video on China to China is beating the US by every
symmetric and
When we say that you know, it's crazy by the way, you know, it's really frustrating about all this
They never stop yelling at us for being right, but too early
People never stop yelling
About the fact that we were just right all along about China
Now they're coming to that conclusion, but they won't stop. They won't stop punishing us from being right
They won't stop punishing us for being right, but too early like oh dude, how dare you when I was saying China was on the
Virgin Collapse and you were telling me no and I yelled at you and said you're a fucking CCP dick writer. You love Mao Zedong
Well, guess what you were you were right about that. I'm arriving at the conclusion now, but fuck you anyway
It's like dude. Well, if you think if you recognize that now if you recognize my conclusions
now
Then you have to then you have to fucking your dog. I look I know you like collars. Yeah, this shirt is crazy
He's a yoji. I'm a motor shirt got collars upon collars
But my point is
Then listen to my warning now not that you ever will no one ever will everyone's like oh, you're fucking dummy
He's stupid socialist fuck you but
but enemy has shifted dramatically
and become much more export oriented,
much more of a competitive threat now than it was then.
I've never understood what to do with these collars,
by the way,
because like you got the normal collar here.
Yeah, the Japanese have gone crazy.
They got, they put collars on collars.
You got the normal collar here
and then you got one additional,
You have two additional collars here.
And they got buttons on them as well.
And I have no idea what the fuck you're supposed to do with it.
You can double pop it if you want.
Bro, you got to flip the inner one up.
I mean, it's not like strong enough.
It's not hard enough to stay in place.
You know what I mean?
It's in the lookbook. I've never seen it. I've never seen the lookbook. Undo the top button, why?
You only double pop if you went to, you stack them, they're designed to be stacked.
Yeah, let's continue with this.
So I think Trump won got that bit right, like Bob Lighthizer, the United States trade representative
under Trump's first term, was sort of the first step of moving us from the WTO consensus
to a world of reciprocal interdependence, supply chain vulnerability, supply chain
and warfare concerns about, like a world where everything is using a more militarized vocabulary.
The whole world is rooting for Iran. What is it? I've been stunned by the many
member officials from a wide variety of countries who while hardly favoring Iran are feeling
much empathy for the Islamic Republic have privately expressed to me a huge sigh of
relief over Tehran's success in thwarting the US-Israeli aggression.
Yeah. I mean, it makes total sense. America is a fucking behemoth. America is a fucking
behemoth. Us receiving a bloody nose in the shit of Hormuz is a good thing for us as
well. Okay? It's good for us as Americans. If it forces American restraint and it
It forces us to recalculate how we operate, then it's good.
An important point by Eli Clifflin and Ian Lustig, the biggest cost of the US's relationship
is not in dollars but in opportunity costs and path dependency.
In other words, closing off Americans' freedom of action.
It's not just good for the rest of the world if we are no longer this like towering
behemoth that's dominating the rest of the planet in a moment's notice, whenever we fucking
feel like it, but it's actually good for us in general. It's good for Americans as well.
Because the current, the current modus operandi for the United States is not beneficial for
the rest of the world. It's certainly not beneficial for them, but it's not beneficial
for those who are living in the United States either. You know, we don't get to see any
of the benefits anyway. Fucking bullshit.
around economic exchange. Trump one was still pretty unilateral. There was a famous story
I think in another newspaper where, you know, President Macron asked like, well, maybe we
should negotiate something together. So they're negotiating phase one, the deal. And President
Trump was like, no, no, no, no, we've done the tariffs. All the benefits should go
to us. This has to flow to us. And so there was an element in the first term of unilateralism,
which obviously becomes unilateralism on steroids over time.
So maybe before then we get to Trump too, it's worth talking about Biden because, you
know, there's a lot of democratic criticism of the way Trump talks about China to some
degree of Trump's tariffs on China, but the Biden team comes in. They largely
keep the tariffs. In some cases, expand them into new areas. They begin doing more to limit
the export of what they consider to be strategically important technologies, like advanced chips
to China. They put on higher tariffs on NEVs, and they do a lot of industrial policy that
actually looks sort of like the way you're describing Chinese industrial policy. So the
Inflation Reduction Act is trying to build domestic.
This is bullshit. No disrespect to Ezra, but this does not hold a fucking candle to Chinese industrial policy.
That is crazy, okay?
No, it shows the limitations of capitalism.
This is 100% a clear cut.
The monster limitation of liberal capitalism.
Those motherfuckers move mountains, dude.
Sometimes literally, like sometimes figuratively,
but sometimes literally, many times literally.
They move cities, they move mountains.
They have five year plans,
they have growth targets in specific sectors
and they deploy the flows of capital in that direction.
Okay
It is ridiculous
The idea
The idea that like, you know the the
the chips actor, the IRA or build back better, it can hold a candle to that kind of mass
scale industrial planning is ridiculous. And therein lies the problem. That's why I always
say like in order to beat China, we want to compete against China and beat China, whatever
that means, we have to be China.
know, supply chain for things like solar panels and wind turbines. And now they're more okay
with it being, you know, in friendly countries too. But there's a lot of bi-American standards
on all of this. And they begin talking a lot in terms of strategic technological competition.
AI is a big thing for them. AI competition with China. How do you think about the
way the Biden administration approached this and both kind of tweaked but didn't upend
like the Trump won approach.
It probably in my view at least didn't go far enough.
It wasn't just clean energy, although that was certainly a big focus.
It also included semiconductors.
And in semiconductors at the time the concern was dependence on Taiwan which was vulnerable
to pressure from China, certainly vulnerable, you know, put the US in a difficult position
if China were ever to put an embargo or attack Taiwan.
And at a certain point, the US just made a decision that we did not want China to have
access to the world's best, certainly not the ability to make the world's best chips.
Too many risk associated with that.
I think that was the right decision, but it unambiguously was viewed by China as a directly hostile act
I think we if someone had done that to us we would have viewed it as a directly hostile act
So it put us into a world unambiguous world of rivalry and
Competition and in a position where we don't there is no way I think another part of the problem is like China is too resilient
And and no matter what we do they just keep winning a lot of people will say oh
do nothing when when they talk about Xi Jinping it's like those motherfuckers are
never not they're never doing nothing they're always doing something like
even with the chips America went to the Netherlands and told them that the
Netherlands which which had had the technology for the latest lithography
machines that are necessary for chip's production. Okay, we told the Netherlands
you can't sell these to China. Okay, well then they went back to the, they went
back to the drawing board and were able to make it themselves. They did. And while
we thought we were stopping their productive capabilities, their production
capabilities by at least a decade, they were able to move the timeline to a
a year. Yes, the EUV lith...
Lytograph? Is that how you say it? Like...
Litography? Is that... I don't know how you're... I don't know how you say it. It's just a fucking machine. The extreme ultraviolet
lithography. The machines that make the chips.
Not the latest chips though, no? I... dude, it doesn't matter.
The fact that they are still like they were able to buy the lower tier lithography machines
and now they're capable of mass producing it means that the timeline has moved up dramatically.
I
Lithography
Lithography, I don't know how you say it
Fucking shit machine, man. I'm not smart enough. Okay. I'm not a goddamn nerd
Yeah, then they write articles about how China built its Manhattan Project arrival to West
and AI chips.
Shenzhen team competed a working prototype of a EUV machine in early 2025.
The lithography machine built by former ASML engineers fills a factory floor, sources say.
China's EUV machine is still undergoing testing and is not yet produced working chips.
is targeting 2028 for working chips, but sources say 2030 is more likely.
UV is still far away, we need to stay humble.
I mean even this was unforeseeable. Okay? This was unexpected and unforeseeable and they produce consumer-grade RAM please yes they will and then the American government will make it illegal for you to purchase it.
They'll come to your house and break down your door with masked ICE agents and arrest you for purchasing Chinese goods.
They already are making RAM.
And yes, it is much more affordable.
If there's one thing that China always does, it is exceed their benchmarks, their targets.
They end up accomplishing those tasks far before people predict them,
and we consistently underestimate their capabilities.
It's not going to try to engineer us out of their chip supply chains.
That's become a national priority.
And so we are trying to reduce our vulnerabilities to Chinese economic coercion at the same time.
But it didn't really go far enough in
in critical minerals where there's plenty of talk about it,
but there wasn't enough action,
not enough on active pharmaceutical ingredients
where either the medicine or the key chemical precursors
are almost 100% sourced from China.
So I think it was a step in a necessary direction.
It was controversial
because of industrial strategy, industrial policy.
Yeah, we're number one in copian production.
China will never catch up on that.
That's true.
Yeah, make no mistake.
If there is a global force in copium production,
in copious amounts of copium production, it is us.
Okay, we're number one in copium.
Long time, the thought was that was something
other countries did.
It wasn't something that America did.
And it wasn't something we're necessarily very good at.
and in some cases and it's crazy because
they didn't mass produce copium elsewhere
and then feed it to the american population in the same way that opium
uh destroyed the chinese population which by the way
love them or hate them shouts out the malzadeong they really nipped that
shit in the bud that was huge
One of the most successful rehabilitative recovery programs of all time, like historic improvements in that field.
That was under Mao.
Meanwhile, yeah, we're doing mass copium distribution, mass facilitation of copium.
There's a real copium epidemic in America, rare earths and the magnets like active ingredients.
It means finding ways to incentivize production in sectors where you know you can't compete
with China on cost.
So that then brings us to Trump too.
So how would you rate what they have done and where it has hit the right balance and where it's been off?
So in general, I
Have noted on many times that I like Bob Lighthizer's trade policy
I eat Trump's first term better than I like Donald Trump's trade policy. I eat Trump's second term
Lighthizer was careful
to only threaten things that the US economy could sustain.
So, you know, the tariff level was set at 25%,
which yeah, people didn't like paying it,
but you could afford to pay it.
He didn't cover all of trade.
So there was always a little more trade
you could bring into that tariff.
Trump had a theory of the case in his second term,
which worked for most of the world,
but didn't work for China.
And the theory of the case is,
well, trades rigged against us.
We need to raise our tariffs
And you need to lower your tariffs, lower your barriers to US exports to put trade on a more fair footing.
You shouldn't, in other words, retaliate for our.
Yeah, except what are they to buy?
Like, what is their, is their products that the Chinese population is like vying for that they simply cannot purchase?
What is the what is the product that America creates that you know regular Chinese society's like I really wish I fucking have my hands on this shit, okay?
F-35s I guess
Like what is it we make burger porn and tanks
Okay, we make guns burger porn tanks
And when I say tanks, I don't mean like, you know, literal weapons war. I'm talking about the F 350
That's what I'm talking about
I
What could we even sell to half of these goddamn countries, you know what I mean?
Not even just China, but like what could we say NFTs did that's what we're gonna sell to China NFTs
gambling
Our our major growth sector of gambling and pornography
Why won't China purchase our gambling apps
Guns, small arms, small arms trafficking.
Why won't China purchase Smith and Wesson weapons so they can give it to their citizens
so people can shoot one another like we do?
Why won't Cambodia purchase F-150s, a fleet?
Why won't the UK purchase Salmonella chicken?
Why is nobody purchasing our goods?
We want to sell them.
Yeah, fun fact, the US sells weapons to one or more sides in about two-thirds of the
World's Active Conflicts.
Yeah, National Cattlemen's Beef Association is mad. Trump is saying that they're going
to, they're going to import cattle now to allow the American cattle industry to grow
would supply again to improve the number of cattle that we have.
National Cattleman's Beef Association says no cow, calf producer in America is asking
for increased imports, undercutting American farmers and ranchers with inferior product
from foreign competitors and nothing to create market confidence or encourage rebuilding
the herd.
We're also killing live horses. Yeah, I've heard wild horses. Yeah
We're eradicating the wild horses
That's on do not show to Navy Hassan Avi heads. What is this eat those on the Shandong the morale of the crew is
Heavily influenced by the quality of food and drinks
Well, they're not your average cooks these folks are highly skilled chefs
Probably the kind you'd find in fancy restaurants.
They've got the expertise to whip up delicious meals without any Gordon Ramsay-style drama.
But it's not just about taste.
The menu is carefully planned to ensure the crew gets the right mix of nutrition and calories.
They focus on fiber and protein over fat, keeping everyone in top shape.
And get this, they offer seven meals a day.
Yep, you heard that right.
What?
variety accommodates the crew's different schedules and dietary needs, making sure everyone
gets what they need.
Bro, sources on the ground told me that there were some people on USS Lincoln that watched
this video and that's the reason why they tried to kill themselves.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Sources on the ground. Sources at USS Lincoln are reporting that this video was distributed
amongst the regular ranks and as soon as they watched it, they tried to jump off the
top of the ship.
they need it. And here's the clever part. Spreading out the meal times prevents long
lines and keeps the kitchen running smoothly. After all, you don't want half the ship waiting
in line for food at the same time. It's all about efficiency here. One standout dish
aboard China's aircraft carriers is the Carrier Chili Sauce, known for its robust
flavor and reported nutritional value. It's a crew favorite, although some find it
best enjoyed with rice due to its intense heat made from basic ingredients like
beef mints chili pepper this is why you're so low on the fact meter on the media
buys chart why because i'm making a joke
is it legal for americans to join their army
oh black beans garlic and chicken essence
it's especially popular among crew members on night shifts
as it helps stave off fatigue on board there's a convenient supermarket offering a variety of
everyday did i just see starbucks wait stop on board bro they're eating doritos in their fucking
in their on their uh aircraft carriers they're still selling doritos in starbucks coffee
offer a variety of everyday items, personal hygiene products, and food at reasonable prices.
While the crew gets their meals for free, they can purchase additional snacks or other
items here if they wish.
The Shandong features a library stocked with plenty of non-fiction books, offering crew
members the chance to explore topics of interest during their downtime.
For instance, there's a book titled The History of the War of Resistance Against America and
Reinforcement of the Korean Peninsula, focusing on the Korean War.
In their lead, sailors can also relax in recreational rooms, where they can indulge
in activities like playing video games, watching TV, or connecting with loved ones on social
media.
Off-duty life is relatively independent on-duty hours are characterized by social collaboration on the show so funny
Art US Navy sailors don't know how to read man
All right, all right enough with this video what the fuck are we doing man, what are we doing?
tariffs China retaliated China said this is coercive
Plus China knew they were gonna be in the crosshairs that you know, she did a good job of getting ready
He'd spent four years plotting this out
So China retaliates we counter retaliate China retaliates more we retaliate again, and we pushed tariffs up to 145 percent
You might think that gives us more leverage. We've completely cut off trade it turned out to be the opposite
Our economy couldn't sustain a hundred and forty five percent tariffs on pretty much everything coming from China
So the administration was in a position where they needed to negotiate a rollback in the tariffs
You know there's a rare earth's component as well, but I try to work China was holding back rare
It's China's was crippled manufacturing. Yeah, so that was real
But it's I think even if China had not done that
Even without the supply chain restrictions the administration knew it needed to roll back the hundred and forty five percent tariffs
Yeah, yeah, okay. Well, what now libtard one US Army unit is offering four bonus days off to play grant
They've thought over soldiers who reenlist
That's right. How about that, dude? How about that? And they get free HRT. They get free fucking TRT.
Abysmal. Abysmal. American military supremacy is so dead. Yeah, they need to commit to two years
minimum to get the Grand Theft Auto time off, dude. It's crazy.
Morale problems what morale problems?
Yeah, if you want yeah, you get four paid days off if you realize so you can die for Israel sick
That's awesome
Yeah, what now dude a bit China doesn't have provisions like that the example that I like to give is that in the
summer of Trump's first year with a hundred ish plus tariffs all
The retailers who import artificial Christmas trees which like all come from China think Christmas tree ornaments think think holidays
Well, those are things that are actually typically imported during the summer
Now, if you're paying 150% tariff, you're going to have to triple whatever your retail
price or something crazy.
And the Christmas tree importers weren't sure, because they're building up inventory ahead
of a future sale, that American consumers would be willing to pay that higher price.
So they just stopped importing.
And when there's a hole in there other places where companies were having to pay
that price for a part, and that would render their ability to export utterly
uncompetitive.
So it was just too broad, too high, too fast. It was disrupting the U.S. economy. That was a mistake.
And I think Lighthizer, in his first term, got it closer to right. Don't ever escalate to the
point where you're put on tariffs that you aren't willing to maintain. The other side will realize
that you are looking for a face-saving way to pull things back. That was, I would say, mistake
mistake one. Mistake two was the breadth of the tariffs, not targeted reasonably by countries.
Just everyone got hit with the Liberation Day tariffs, in some cases very, very, very high
tariffs. That alienated a bunch of countries that themselves were worried about trade with
China. So it kind of took away the possibility of building a broader coalition against China.
So that's first problem with these very, very broad tariffs. Second problem with the very,
very broad tariffs was they ended up being done in kind of irrational to my mind ways.
We were terrifying at really high levels, Canadian aluminum.
Canadian aluminum is not that it's this administration cares, but it's made in a
a kind of greenway, trapped hydro power in Quebec.
It has been part of our aluminum industry since World War II, you know, when the bombers
were built with Canadian aluminum, there's no national security threat.
It is essential to our market.
The primary aluminum market doesn't clear in the U.S. without Canadian imports, which
meant that this price is shot up.
And then the final problem was like, hey, aluminum is electricity distilled, credibly
energy intensive and electricity intensive. So it is competing with data centers for power.
And so even with the really high tariffs, this guy's anti-China though, right? Yes,
but he's also, he's also basically describing or at least recognizing China's rise in global
prominence. China's rise to power and its impact on the American economy. But they're
They're at least enlightened liberals who recognize that, recognize the downsides, but
they can't identify how it happened, I guess.
Because they're still giving credit to Trump's...
They're basically giving credit, or he's basically giving credit to Donald Trump recognizing
the dangers of China before other Americans moved, like before other
electeds moved in that direction, which I think is silly, because they're also
refusing to understand why China's rise happened. And if you can't comprehend
why China's rise happened, if you just simply think, oh well, you know, they
just one day they just got really good at making shit because we sent our
manufacturing over there and that's it and there's nothing we can do about it
then you're never gonna be able to solve the problem and there's a good deal
of like they're cheating in this conversation as well it's not as bad
as I thought it would be though. Mark Lynch wrote on foreign affairs, the end of the American
Middle East, you're sure reporting on this first or looking at the first opening paragraph,
the American Middle East has finished the regional order that has prevailed since 1991
has been one that many casualties in the U.S. has really wore with Iran. The American
and Israeli failure to dislodge the regime in Tehran has proven the bankruptcy of
decades of sanctions of violence.
More and more Americans are now coming to terms with this reality, which I really appreciate.
But what will we do next is what matters most, and I don't think that Americans are going
to wake up to this reality and then instead change our trajectory, change course.
I think, I suspect we're just going to double down.
US 30 year treasuries are raised gains from buyback announcement.
Scott Besen, who made his billions helping Soros break currencies in the 1990s, should
recognize what this sort of intervention failure signals.
So now this is exactly the opposite message we've been getting from Warsh, who says the
market price is a useful signal and that traders should be playing ball.
Besen says buybacks can be bigger than the four billion we announced.
And now he's saying US yields don't reflect underlying fundamentals.
It has been kind of funny watching so many of these liberals though, who spent a good
deal of time talking about China's imminent decline, imminent demise, turn around and
be like, why is China such a fucking behemoth?
President Trump appears to have re-
Anyway, let's look at this, uh, picture Michael Cohen now.
I can tell he's one of his most outspoken critics.
His name, Michael Cohen.
You remain, remember, he turned on Trump after working as his political fixer.
This week, he interviewed the president who suggested that Cohen was forced to
testify against him.
Ed O'Keefe is at the White House with the latest on this ad.
I have to say, I did not have this on my bingo cart.
They were like the Taylor Swift song.
We are never, ever, ever, ever, ever getting back together.
I still, I don't.
You know what to say.
But to call another Taylor Swift song, Gail, the bad blood, if you will, between the president
of his former fixer is legendary, and the two have spent years sparring publicly and in
court about what Cohen did for Trump back in the day, but they appear to be moving on
with a radio interview once thought unthinkable.
You and I have obviously traveled a pretty rocky road together.
A stunning, unexpected reunion between President Trump and his former fixer and personal
attorney, Michael Cohen.
The excerpts of the friendly interview released Thursday night made only passing reference to their turbulent history.
They weaponized you, they weaponized a lot of people, and I respect the fact that you recanted everything you said, and that's a big thing that you did.
Cohen began working for Trump in 2006 and once famously said he'd take a bullet for his boss.
Cohen stayed with Trump through the 2016 election, but went on to serve time in prison for campaign
finance violations related to payments he arranged.
This is his maya culpa.
It turns out he wasn't doing a maya culpa for about working for Trump, but instead was
doing a maya culpa to Trump.
So silence adult film star Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal
who claimed they'd had sex with Trump.
has consistently denied those allegations.
After getting out of prison, Cohen testified before Congress.
Mr. Trump is a con man.
Oh!
He asked me to pay off an adult film star with whom he had an affair and to lie about
it to his wife, which I did.
In 2024, he gave similar testimony in the so-called hush money criminal case against
Trump, recounting how then candidate Trump had promised to reimburse him for those
payments to Daniels and McDougal.
was ultimately convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records and is actively appealing.
Cohen hasn't recanted his testimony, but said he felt pressured by prosecutors.
After years of sparring with each other in public, they reminisced and appeared to patch
things up on Thursday.
Boss, you remember when I was by your side, I literally used to analyze-
Oh my God.
Right, you got this.
Oh my God, it's so fucking pathetic, dude.
So I think liberals are doubly pathetic as well for like highlighting this dude, revitalizing
his career, treating him like a hero.
And just like the dog that he is, he went back barking for daddy.
Exactly.
Boss, you might be wondering why on earth is Cohen willing to do this?
Well, he says he decided to reconcile with Trump quote for myself, for my health, for
my family.
He's also resubmitted an application for a pardon, and they've yet to hear back from
the White House.
The rest of this interview is set to be released on Sunday, so we'll be waiting to hear if
Cohen raises it directly with the president.
Kelly?
Well, Ed, perhaps these two are in their forgiveness era.
All right, thank you.
So I want to go back to 2016 if we can, because you and I have obviously traveled
a pretty rocky road together.
Do you remember, sir, when I went on CNN with Breanna Keeler and she told me
that you were underwater in the poles and I responded with those famous two words says
who which became some worldwide meme and then they weaponized you like nobody's
ever been weaponized like few have been well maybe just you and I sir yeah me too
but I don't consider my mind is it a level that he's doing the desperate for
pussy voice but instead desperate desperate for pardon voice nobody's
ever seen before but they weaponized you they weaponized a lot of people and I
respect the fact that you recanted everything you said and that's a big
that's a big thing that you did so you may remember you may remember that
following morning you called me into the office after and then you gave me
one of those traditional Trump's slaps on the shoulder and he said to me F them
you're stronger than them. We've got this. Now the funny thing is that CNN never
apologized. They never retracted anything. And now years later, CNN, MSNOW, and the
other left-leaning outlets, they're doing the exact same thing, constantly
talking about you being underwater with favoritability numbers. Mr. President,
what do you say to these people who keep bringing up polls when you're not
even running for office again?
Yeah woke one gave everyone who was remotely critical of trouble microphone
No matter what they had done
That's when the Lincoln project was designed that's where the bulwark came from
If you were in any way shape or form critical of Trump, but in the past were Republican
MSNBC would be like I will suck your cock on camera on television please let's talk to you and you only and no one else
And it was crazy because they were not like this was not representative of
A major constituency at all
Yeah, they did it with John Bolton
the
so fucking dumb
and I think that we're doing really well in the polls the real polls if I were running today I think I'd win by 25 points I think we'd win by a lot the economy has never been stronger we're doing numbers that nobody's ever seen before you take a look at what's going on with Venezuela it was a one day deal it was actually a
Who's up Bolton, what do you mean?
John Bolton is on CNN on a nightly basis, or was?
The eight minute deal, it was an attack where we took a truly bad person out of the country,
including the wife, out of the country in our standing trial.
This was a very evil man, and the country, we are involved very much with the country,
making out millions and millions of barrels of oil, and that goes right into our Treasury.
We've done, and the Venezuelan was amazing, and now with Iran, they will never have a
nuclear weapon.
We're controlling, essentially controlling, and soon controlling the states.
We're doing very well with Iran.
The press doesn't like to say that, although a lot of the press does say it, because
the Navy's gone, the Air Force is gone, the leadership is gone.
the problem is so many of the leaders are gone. It's not easy to make a deal. Nobody knows
who's leading, but I think the public sees what we're doing because Iran can never have
a nuclear weapon. Very simple. And I think the public sees it and I think they appreciate
it and they respect it. And I tell them, they'll be a little higher for your job.
I've done this man's podcast. I went on the Michael home podcast energy cost, but
There'll be a little bit higher for gasoline.
And I had it down to a dollar 85 cents a barrel.
And then I said, but we have to make a journey
to the Middle East because we can't let a rent
have a nuclear weapon.
And that's what happened.
And we've been very effective.
We've wiped them out, militarily wiped out.
Yeah.
I've been on the Mayakopa podcast.
This is my Mayakopa.
Don't be a little loud to me.
You don't have to do it every time, yes I do.
Oh baby don't you lie to me.
I love this song, it's so good.
Yeah, it's fine by me.
Yeah, see?
Some of them went in and they're, they're hugging and kissing.
Take this nation into the future.
Really likely that's probably what's going to happen.
You know, mansion and cinema are two immediate people I can think of that will play the
role of the spoiler within the Democratic Party.
And I think Joe Biden needs to do more to whip the Democratic caucus in general.
Oh my god, I've been saying the same shit for years dude. God, I fucking I hate this
Nobody listens to me. Oh god
It's the same shit
Oh
My god, why do you guys even fucking watch the stream just watch
Just rewatch what I said ten years ago, and you'll probably hear the same fucking problems
The same issues with the Democratic Party the same issues of the Republican Party
I randomly clicked
12 minutes into this fucking podcast from five years ago, and I'm saying the same things that I said yesterday
Let's do another one. Let's do it on it, and I don't believe he will be able to on on any of it
I just I want the left of Joe Biden
Wish they were more aggressive. I am certainly to the left of Joe Biden
but I
Just I want him to genuinely follow through on it, and I don't believe he will be able to on on any of it for that matter
You know, what is what is shame because I'm looking at the first 100 days of this administration
and I have to give him pretty high marks for what he has actually accomplished.
But what he's accomplished is you've been saying the same shit for so long that you
witness Michael Cohen go from pro Trump to anti Trump and now back to pro Trump.
This is my mayor go by only in a certain number of areas, right?
So the number of vaccinations that have gone into the arms of Americans, absolutely fantastic.
Far exceeded.
And to say, look, you're not going to do this job.
You don't want to do this job for the prices that we want you to do this job for.
So we're going to use these guys instead who are desperate.
Agreed.
Agreed.
I'm talking about winning the war.
Trump being candidates are taking over state government and pushed through these regressive
voter legislation.
I like to watch someone mutually going saying with me as a
country crashes and burns. It just sucks. He's like, no one
fucking listens, man. No one listens to me. I mean, you guys
do.
It's just annoying. It's annoying to be right and to be
undermined all the time for being right. And then have
people arrive at our positions but then refuse to listen to our current positions that are
also right but too early once again.
Like so many of these, so many of these goddamn liberals constantly yell not at what I'm saying
but about what they assume I'm saying, and it's so frustrating.
I feel like you're forgetting that you recently were just
a part of a huge slew of electoral victory.
So people who are in your corner law, I know,
but is it still annoying?
Now, they have some missiles.
They have some drones.
Their capacity to build them is very low right now compared to what it was five
months ago. It was five months ago. They were not going to mount.
Now they, it's very hard for them to knock out anything. They're in bad shape.
They have inflation that's 300% there. Uh, their currency is
valueless. You know, it's virtually value that military is not being paid.
And so they're in bad shape, but, uh, the key that the reason I did it,
and we had no choice and I would have done it again a hundred times,
They cannot have a nuclear weapon and they won't be having a nuclear weapon
And why not just then turn around and tell the American people you know the one thing that you may you may feel some
Frustration going on right now economically the price of gas and so on but why not just turn around and say to the American people
You know what you get to do you get to go to sleep at night with knowledge
That there will be no
Intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile being fired towards the United States because if they because they don't
have the capability. And they've never developed that capability. That's the only reason why.
It's just not like their ballistic missile range is, you know, maybe Eastern Europe. That's their
maximum range. Oh my god. He had it with that's theocracy, sir. You know exactly what they would
be doing right now. So I do tell that the press doesn't get it out and I say it often.
I said at the other day, the big rally I had with the police out on Long Island and we
have these unbelievable rallies, rallies are potentially bigger than ever. I mean, if we
did rallies as an example, if we did rallies now, nobody have had rallies like this. They're
potentially I think they're bigger than ever. There's a great spirit for what's
going on, especially in light of what's happening with all these crazy theories and policies
and lunatics that are running here, lunatics that would destroy the country. And they're
being put in the Democrat Party. I think they'll be wiped out in the election because
the people are too smart to allow that to happen. It's never worked. In a thousand
years, that stuff has never worked and it's not going to work now, but they're
not even smart people. You know, you watch some of them, half of them can't even
think properly so i think we're doing very well we are letting people know
about that we're letting people know that
you know it's wonderful to say everything is good but you can't if you
had a country like that and they're crazy
if you had a country like that they would absolutely use the nuclear weapon
without question and so i stopped that
i stopped it cold with the b2 bombers i also stopped it
the jcp away is there a single thing that the republicans the reactionary
right, actually fear that they haven't invented.
I think about it all the time.
But like 99% of Republican fears are just completely invented.
So real shit that they get afraid of.
It's like, Oh, well, I imagined a scary.
I imagined a scary future.
And then that scary future I imagined has scared me so much that we have to take action.
Literally, Iran developing a nuclear weapon capable of wiping out the United States.
You just invented that reality. It's just you invented it and now you're scared of your own invention.
Children are being transgendered. It's not the case. Again, you made that up. Not the case at all.
It's not a real thing. Oh, they're making the kids gay. That's not how this works. Cuba is going to invade the United States of America,
States of America or rather has already ideologically invaded the United States of America by way
of DSA, Karen Bass and Hassan Piker. That's psychotic. Someone said, what? That's literally
a thing that the State Department said. It's a thing that the State Department claimed.
And I just don't understand.
Like, there's enough, there are enough real problems
in the United States of America.
But these guys constantly make up new shit to get mad at.
Your thirst vids doing numbers today.
What is this?
I thought I looked so fat here.
Like I was so, in my mind I thought I looked so fat here, but I looked so brawly.
I don't look like this anymore.
Go to your shoulders.
What?
Go to your shoulders.
Okay.
Oh, it's cold.
56 is cold.
You weren't lying.
Yeah, it's cold.
It makes your shoes hurt a lot.
Oh.
I literally looked like this.
I looked like this.
I looked like this.
I looked like this.
I looked like this.
I literally thought I don't look like this anymore. I'll admit but I look I thought it looks so fat
In my mind I was like I look so I look the fattest anyone's ever looked
Oh, too nice.
Oh.
So you're fat now, less fat?
Yeah.
What'd you eat today?
Chicken.
Just chicken, huh?
Just chicken.
What does it sound like, chat?
No rice.
Everyone close your eyes right now.
A little bit of chicken.
You're fucked.
Salad.
Well, why is this shit?
It's getting colder.
No, it's not.
It feels like it is. It feels like it's getting colder.
Whoa!
Oh, stop!
You're a stone, dude!
When did I get out?
How'd you go out?
I can't believe it.
What if I say something?
Oh, fuck me.
Oh, we fucked.
Wim Hof. Wim Hof, Stada.
It's fucking gross.
You're fucking trolling yourself.
It's cold.
Hands in there
Are you ever gonna swim a Bradley again?
No.
No, I'm kidding. Maybe. I don't know.
Why are you moaning? It's an ice bath, Chad!
Yeah, look at that side profile, dude. That's crazy.
Your boy was fucking shredded.
Your boy was fucking peeled.
Okay?
I was.
I don't look like that no more. I was Bradley feeling about Trump now. Not great. He hates me
I'm pretty sure he hates Trump. It's cold. Bradley can I get a shirt too?
Like an armadillo. Oh dude look I have fucking goosebumps.
There it is. I think the bigger thing that I did today was at the cold plunge.
It's the fact that I took my shirt off on my own stream on cameras.
It's the first time I've done that.
Now you just sit at home with your Dr. Peppers and you chud out on Twitter through.
You got a thick butt, not gonna lie.
You got severe body dysmorphia of my guys almost is always both sad and funny
Bro, you guys don't understand how like this was my peak. I
Was in peak physical tip-top shape and in my mind. I was like I'm such a I'm obese like I thought
This was a huge deal for me. I was like, I'm taking my shirt off. I
Thought I was like morbidly obese here like this was a this was a moment of
of great courage for me.
You understand?
Meanwhile, it's just because of this,
like a little bit of fat here, a little bit of...
Scott Hannity's wife is watching, be careful.
Take it off right now, fuck no.
This is my may a copa. Always worse. What is this?
This has gotten ridiculous. They're hate. Oh God. I have a shmoly.
Every news headline now is like blueberries would kill you. Measles back. Measles back.
Gas costs $6. Gwyneth Paltrow was selling a hydro and technology. You're being watched.
Three billion more to Israel. Like I don't know. Did we do it? Did we make America
great again? I did all of that by the way. I am responsible for all of those things just
so you guys remember.
That was the Obama deal that was such a disaster that he made years ago. Had that deal, had
I not terminated that deal, Iran would have a nuclear weapon. And they would have used
it very quickly. They would have wiped out Israel. They would have wiped out the Middle
East. And you saw that because when this thing started, surprisingly to everybody,
started shooting missiles at sort of semi-neutral countries. They were going after Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, they were going after UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and nobody really knew they were so involved.
And they started hitting everybody. They had a nuclear weapon that would have used it on everybody.
And look, there would be no Israel if there was not a Donald Trump president.
I think there'd be no Saudi Arabia either.
Right now, I believe the Middle East would have been entirely wiped out, but Israel definitely would have been wiped out
There's no quite they would be they tell me that there would be no Israel if there was no Donald Trump
You know what surprised me was how did they end up with a thousand pounds of?
60% enriched uranium when allegedly whether was under Biden was yeah, you're talking to the guy on the phone
You literally worked with him
You work with them at the time. That's how Iran got the 60%
God's again, you know how we said like 99% of conservative grievances are just like made up is like shit that they invented and
Then got scared of their own invention
This is the other side of the equation where they always talk about like real problems they caused and then go how did that happen I
I don't know man you were there you literally were there when it happened
You were fucking in the room brother God he wants that part in so bad
He wants that part in so goddamn bad. It's crazy
There's under Obama when there was an every president
But how did they end up with literally 1,000 pounds of nuclear grade?
Well, it seemed to be made nuclear grade enriched uranium.
So when we hit them with the B2 bombers, which was an amazing attack, amazing, deep into
the moon with no moon, with no light, no nothing.
And every bomb hit its mark and wiped their whole nuclear thing out.
And it was in fact obliterated.
But when we did that, people had no idea what to expect.
No idea.
You know, you're going in there, you're going into a very, very dangerous place for these
incredible machines.
And the job they did, the job those machines and those pilots did was really amazing.
But Obama allowed that to happen.
Biden allowed that to happen.
Other presidents allowed that to happen.
should have been done. This has been going on for 50 years and this should have been 47,
but we talk about it for three or four years. It's actually the numbers 51 years, but we
say 47 because that seems to be the standard number that everyone uses, but this was going
on for 50, actually 51 years now. And it should have been taken care of by other presidents
or other countries.
It's kind of funny that this interview is the exact same interview that he has conducted
a million times over but obviously it's significant for michael cohen is is
vast
because this is uh... his only way of of receiving a pardon
i guess i can you in his shoes you do the same thing on a
There are Laura Loomers everywhere for eyes to see how do multiple people look like this?
Wait what the fuck?
Dude what is up with MAGA bro?
Why do they look like that?
It's just so strange.
What is happening?
They all look like Laura Loomer variants.
Is this Laura Loomer?
There's Larry Loomer.
BAM plastic surgery? I just don't know why this happens.
All right, let's move on. We got to do the Natalie Harps thing again, because it's not
just lip-slop, but I'm also invested because she is cuckoo for cuckoo puffs. What is this
Florida drama stop gaslight in me, Florida, Democrat Senate nominee and party chair of
heated call over socialism? Oh my God, whatever. I stand Angie Nixon. I stand with her with
communications between President Trump and one of his closest aides now raising questions
about the potential national. Oh yeah, I already posted this is my blast off me, but here's
Natalie harp running after Trump's golf cart in 2023. She also sent a she writes letters to Trump.
She writes letters to Trump. We're going to see one of those insane letters. Okay. She
she writes like these long ass letters to Trump and she's like you are my light.
You are my everything. You're my alpha. You're my Omega. She's smiling and she's chasing after
this fucking golf cart by the way and what's wild to me is she wrote a letter
after this as well she said I'm so sorry I embarrassed you by running after the
golf cart it's like girl get on a golf cart why are you chasing him
it's so crazy security ramifications letters published info for the first
First time by the Daily Beast shows Stafford Natalie Harp writing to the president in 2023,
and I'm quoting now, you are all that matters to me," end quote.
And also this, I don't want to ever let you down, end quote.
She also reportedly tells president she is quote, unworthy of him.
CNN has not independently confirmed that Harp wrote or sent the letters to the president,
but the contents are prompting concerns about the broader implications of the very
close relationship between Harp and the president, viewed by some in the White House as a gatekeeper
of President Trump and the most powerful man in the world. Let's go live right now to see
an in White House correspondent, Elena Trin. She's working the story for us. What more can you
tell us, Elena, about these letters and how the Trump administration is responding?
Yeah, look, Walf. I mean, we've heard some details of some of these, you know, experts
that have been reported by the New York Times and other outlets. But I think what's
interesting about these is that we are seeing them in full for the first time I
should note they are from 2023 and they're of course very personal I will
read you some more of the excerpts from these letters that were published in
the same bold reads quote I have to be human printer I could take time to enjoy
good conversation and still get all my work done at the end of the day in
fact I even had time to take long morning and evening walks to enjoy
each sunrise and sunset though I did forget to eat and sleep another
reads please when I fail will you tell me you have the absolute right to cuss me out if need be
when I deserve it because no oh my god bro
okay okay am I crazy or does she actually want to fuck him like I know that Trump doesn't have
sex but like actually I don't even like she is like you are my everything
I think she straight up thinks Trump is like hot as well as everything else like
This might be
This might straight up be like the the the most cultish I've ever seen someone behave around Trump
No one knows or cares about me more to modify a classic it goes on to say
I could not have parted with you to anyone less worthy and I will add it is I who is
unworthy. So clearly very personal in these letters and I think what's important,
some important context to note here, Wolf, is just how deep the connection
between Natalie Harp and the president is. I'd remind our viewers that she has
credited the president with saving her life. She has said in the past that she
had suffered from bone cancer and that she believes that it was the
president's 2018 legislation that he had signed that she credits with
allowing her to receive experimental treatments. We don't know what
those treatments are. She's never said what they are. But I think that gives you some insight
into why she feels such total loyalty toward the president. Now, I will say the White House
said in a statement earlier this week, this is from their spokesman, Davis Ingle, he
said, quote, that Natalie Harp is, quote, one of the most loyal and hardest working
aides on President Trump's team. I should note that was from Tuesday. We have reached
out to the White House again for additional comment on these letters being published
in full. But again, a very important, I think, relationship that we're really seeing come
to light more so this week, ever since Senator John Offsoff, a Democrat, had made comments
about Harp and how she travels with the president often. That spurred a lot of reaction
from the White House, some again.
I just don't understand how, like, I mean, I guess it goes to show this shows how
narcissistic Trump is as well because like I feel like anyone with any fraction of
power just like anyone in general but even like a like a bank teller if they
had a subordinate behave this way towards them they'd be like this is too
much please get the fuck away from me you're psychotic
I
Like this is beyond sycophantic this is an expression of of cult like admiration
I feel like it's in your best interest to say the fuck away from people like this
I don't believe it.
Pointing out how loyal and hardworking she is, some of them that were far more aggressive
and sharp in their defense of harp.
And one thing I've actually picked up, well, some of my conversations with people here
at the White House this week is that some of those more aggressive post-defending harp
actually had the adverse effect of drawing more attention to this relationship and dragging
the story out I think into the public view. Yeah I mean this literally became a major
incident because of the John Osloff moment. Because like I had read a little bit about Natalie Harp.
There was like some revelations about her being kind of weird. I remember because she is like
somewhat eye-catching. She's always like creepily smiling behind every, because I remember watching
that human printer video from when they're reacting live reacting to Kamala Harris.
And like I remember her always being in the background
Like it's she wasn't like an unknown entity
but
The John Assoff moment absolutely blew the shit up because of the
Insane reaction to it where it was like whoa hold on how dare you say she's a psychopath
This would have come this wouldn't have come to light if Ossoff hadn't brought it up
And it is enough it is in fact a matter of public concern with the cognitive declining president
The most proud question on earth is constantly followed around by someone who is like a political
Scientologists and has made it their sole purpose to affirm and cocoon the president in his delusions
Also, the most damaging leaks are now coming from the White House
What you see is Trump's people on the inside taking this opportunity to attack Natalie Harp. He's right
Pedro Gonzalez is right
Like the only reason why we're getting this level of insight into Natalie harps madness is because other people in Trump's orbit are
Sick and tired of her shit
It's clear that they're like oh finally
In a bigger way, and so I think anything else on her brother. Yeah, he's a Sandinista
Kind of tried to move away from that and I think likely we're gonna continue to see kind of this one statement
that's been circulating, be the word
from the White House for now.
All right, Elena Trina reporting for us.
Elena, thank you very, very much, Pamela.
All right, join us now in the situation room
is Maggie Haberman.
She's a White House correspondent for The New York Times.
And the co-author of the best-selling book,
Regime Change Inside the Imperial Presidency
of Donald Trump with Donna Swann.
Maggie, it's so great to have you on the show.
Regime Change introduced us to Natalie Hart.
For a lot of people it was the very first time
they learned about her.
So remind our viewers about her power
in President Trump's White House
and what the details from these letters demonstrate to you.
So one of the things that Jonathan and I reported
in the book was, yes, Natalie Harp,
it was so devotional to him
that she would write these letters.
We had looked at the letters, we'd obtained them.
They had and reviewed them.
These were in 2023, as Elena said,
but she was going into the White House with him,
and he would tell people in the four years out of power,
three, some odd that she worked for him,
that she was the only person among his staff
who loved him as much as his wife and children.
And he would say, all of the rest of you
will go off and make money, she will never leave me.
And so that tells you about how much he values loyalty.
It tells you how much that he values somebody who,
he will be a constant supplier of good news.
There is a reason that the human printer,
Nickname that she refers to in her own letter that Elena just read that was coined by oh my god
We're so back to resistance liberalism one moment of lips lob and jay mershawn is already linking me fucking Seth
Abramson posts dude
Feed note at approximately 9 p.m. Eastern tonight some of y'all are too young
It's very clear that you weren't here during resistance liberalism in 2016 because I would clown on Seth Abramson all the time
He is like a classic character from resist the hashtag resistance liberalism from the first Trump term
Oh my god, we did one we did one fucking lip-slop story and Jay Mershawn is like dude look at this
Yeah, Jeff T. Drake. Where's Jeff T. Drake?
There were a couple of these guys
Oh my god, is Rachel Maddow back too?
This will be a very hard report to read, so it comes with a warning. If you're in anything like an emotionally fragile state, please do not read it.
Yeah, Russia Gators are back, baby. I fucking love these guys.
People working for the president because Natalie Harp has been a controversial figure inside his world for a while.
a while and I understand the White House is upset now about focus on her but you know
this is coming in part because of people around the president have been concerned including
the Secret Service during those four years out of office but she does fill a role that
he wants. She handles a lot of his social media. She is a channel by which outsiders
can bypass existing systems to get to him and vice versa where he can reach out to
other people that does include in some cases foreign leaders. That's the role she serves.
Our colleague Aaron Burnett interviewed Natalie Harps, a strange brother, earlier this week
and asked for a...
I just feel like she's so insane that she does not have any capability of manipulating
Trump.
I guess she could filter, and probably does filter, what information Trump sees.
But like, I think it's a relationship where like, she is the abuse victim and not
Trump.
Even though Trump is obviously the one experiencing cognitive decline, so who knows.
The view of some of you reporting for-
Anyway, on that note, I gotta go.
All right?
What do you think it is?
On that note, I have to leave you guys early today because I have the show.
I have to go and do a live show in San Francisco tour.fear.com.
I will not be live tomorrow because we have to shoot the podcast
So I will be back on Sunday from Portland
From Austin's
Dome Isile I
Know it's only 4 p.m. But I my show is starting. I
Have to go film the fucking we what time is it at 7? Yeah, but we have to be there early
We have to do a run-through. We have to be there early
But in any case
Wait megafaunix is not even there what the fuck I mean I'm in your hood megafaunix and you're not even showing up
What the fuck am I washed?
It's over can we watch the show online anywhere. No, it will not be recorded. It will not be taped
It's a it's a secret
I have a personal training session bitch. You literally aren't showing up
Because you have a personal training session. That's insane. Oh
My god, you are dead to me motherfucker. You are I am taking away
I am taking away your top chatter static. I'm taking away your VIP right now. I just on VIP you I
Just on VIP you
That's crazy on a Friday afternoon. I've revoked it. I revoked it. Yep. Yep is gone. See
Yeah
Yeah, you can't even spam it now, can you yeah
Yeah, megafaunix losses VIP on this day a 21 a day that will be remembered
permanently
unbelievable
unbelievable for a personal training session you could have fucking had done
at any other time that's crazy yeah you deserve that anyway love you guys and I
will see you tomorrow okay or Sunday all right bye bye
I'll sell people, hey
Sonny Los Angeles, California says her son
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